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The emerging global order is likely to experience challenges such as wars, economic uncertainty, climate change and terrorism. The focus of the changing Global order would be Asia particularly Eurasia, the vast land mass. In order to understand the shape of the emerging global order, it is imperative to keep two developments in mind. One is under the leadership of President Donald Trump’s American foreign policy is likely to play an active role in shaping the global order. Second and equally crucial factor is the role of Russia and China, as both these leading powers are located in Eurasia. They share lengthy land border (approximately 4200 km or 2646 miles) in Eurasia. A prominent feature of present day Eurasia is they share a strong strategic partnership. Given Russia’s nearly 3 years of war with Ukraine with bleak prospect for settlement of the conflict, will it be able to impact on developments in Eurasia?
Now that Eurasia is open due to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 it has attracted world attention. Eurasia’s vast space and economic advantage is the focus of external and regional powers. From the geopolitical perspective the land mass stretches from the Pacific in the east to the Baltic Sea in the West. The Eurasian land mass offers an opportunity for trade and land routes. Now that trade and connectivity has moved to the centre stage of international affairs, it has undoubtedly attracted world attention. The famous fifth century ‘Silk Road’ traversed the Eurasian landmass. Moreover Eurasia has a wealth of natural resources and rare minerals such as energy, uranium, gold, copper, iron ore, aluminium, etc. To-day rare minerals are essential for the production of high Technology.
The core of Eurasia is the five Central Asian States – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. These states are also will endowed with natural resources and minerals, but are landlocked. The Central Asian States (CAS) have reached a certain level of development, hence are able to absorb high Technology. External powers are keen to invest in CAS, but the issue is of connectivity to the world markets. Efforts are on in search of routes through third countries. Among the countries interested in establishing a presence in Eurasia are the US, Europe, Japan Turkiye and Iran.
From the perspective of trade and land routes, CAS are crucial as they are located in the centre of Eurasia. It offers transit facility as well as access to areas in the north, south, east and west. To mention some of the routes: planned or are work in progress are
To mention some of the land routes
- Trans Caspian International Transportation Route (TITR) from China to Europe is operational since 2017. The route is also known as the “The Middle Corridor”
- “Corridor Eurasia” – Mongolia. No details are available.
- China – Kyrgyzstan – Uzbekistan Railway line. The route has been cleared recently
- India – Middle East – Europe – Economic Corridor
- The international North South Transport Corridor (INSTC)
- Central Asia – South Asia route initiated by the US and its allies. Its present state is not known.
- China has initiated its flagship project the Silk Road Economic Belt connecting Xian in China traversing the Eurasian land mass reaching Russia for connectivity with Europe. Presently the route is not an efficient one, due to Western Sanctions.
Russian – Chinese Strategic Partnership
In the past Russia and China were bitter arrivals and even fought a border war in 1969 over a contested land boundary. Today a dominant feature of Eurasia is the strong partnership between them. China has rendered full support diplomatically and defense cooperation has deepened. Chinese support and cooperation has greatly helped Russia in its war with Ukraine. Some Scholars say “Russia is a junior partner.” Both Russia and China are aspiring for global leadership and will ensure that the partnership remains stable and sustainable.
At the regional level the focus of all International and regional powers is on Central Asian States (CAS) located in the centre of Eurasia. The CA S are also well endowed with natural resources and rare minerals. They have reached a point of economic development and are in need of investment and technology primary for extraction so that they can advance their economic progress. External and regional powers who aspire space and influence in Eurasia for geo strategic and geo economic purposes.
The significance of Eurasia for the US was put forward by Z Brzenzinsk former American National Security Advisor. He wrote in his book The Grand Chess Board (1998) “Eurasia has been the centre of world power. A power that dominates Eurasia would control two of the world’s three most advanced and economically productive regions – rendering the Western hemisphere and Oceania geographically peripheral to the world central continent, Turkey is also trying to increase its space in Central Asia on the basis of ethnic culture. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are of Turkic origin and have responded positively to Turkey’s initiative for forming an Organisation of Turkic State. All four of them are members of the Organisation of Turkic States. While Iran looks upon the Central Asian space from a geopolitical perspective. For China’s flagship project Silk Road Economic belt (SREB) initiated in 2013 from Kazakhstan is critically important for its trade and connectivity to Europe. China has invested in infrastructure projects in Central Asia. Japan has extended its Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) to CAS. Efforts are on the connectivity issue. In 2013 India launched its Connect Central Asia policy (CCAP).
In the late nineties Russia and China resolved the land border issue amicably. In 1996 China initiated the “Shanghai Five”. Later The Shanghai Five was converted into Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in 2001 and Uzbekistan was coopted as its member. Since then Russia and China relations are on the upswing. Today their relationship has moved to Strategic Partnership. As described by Chinese President Xi Jinping the partnership has “No limits” China has supported and cooperated with Russia in its war with Ukraine. It has rendered diplomatic support especially in the United Nations and cooperated in defense matters. China hopes to depend its defense cooperation. However the growing partnership has evoked diverse views both at the official and non-official level. We shall now examine their views
An Evaluation of Russian Chinese Strategic Partnership
In the emerging global order Asia and Eurasia will figure prominently in shaping the evolving global order. What would its impact be on the Russian-Chinese Strategic Partnership? Inspite of focusing on similar aspirations of emerging as global powers the partnership could lose some of its shine. In fact two major land powers in Eurasia the geographical proximity with a common land boundary could find it difficult to achieve true partnership. Here it is worth mentioning the apt observation of former Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew an astute politician and a keen observer of Chinese scene said “China will not acquiesce to a status quo indefinitely…. competition is inevitable but conflict is not.” For Russia and China the Eurasian space is important mainly from geo strategic and geo-economic perspectives. The CAS are located in the centre of Eurasia and offer access in the north, south, east and west direction. For Russia its “Pivot to Asia” policies are located in Eurasia.
Central Asia is crucial for its policies in Asia. Russia’s two Regional organisations; the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) established in 2003 and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) 2011. President Xi Jinping unveiled his Chinese Dreams in Kazakhstan. China hopes to create inter-dependencies with CAS and in the long run enhance its presence, build leverages and promote good neighborliness and peace in its Western periphery. For the US the significance of Central Asia and Afghanistan lies in its geopolitical location flanking two future powers who could challenge American leadership in world affairs.
However in the immediate future or even perhaps in the mid -term the partnership will continue primarily because they are not global powers as yet and their goals are global in nature. Hence at present they need each other’s support and cooperation till they can achieve the status of a global power. Russia needs China’s partnership as its war with Ukraine continues with bleak prospects of ending it. Meanwhile China is gradually increasing its footprints in Central Asia. It is investing in trade and connectivity and Infrastructure projects. Economy is another area which is of interest to China and is investing in that as well. Besides both Russia and China share lengthy land border and will not raise contentious border issue.
On the other hand strains in the partnership are evident. Some scholars opine that Russia and China are not natural partners but tactical in which their respective national interest play an important role. For instance Russia’s view on a multi-polar world is an international system where power is balanced with a diminished role for US and its liberal values imposed on other states. For China recognises it has benefitted from the rule based international order. The process of economic liberalization and globalization has facilitated rapid economic rise over the past 30 years
The Eurasian space is the key to the emergence of Russia and China’s as global powers. The competitive trend is evident. However China is increasing its footprints in Central Asia by investment and at the same time supporting and cooperating with Russia in its three year war in Ukraine diplomatically especially in the United Nations and cooperating in defense matters, There is a view that soon Russia will become a toothless formal super power.
Another area where divergence of views could impact the Russian-Chinese partnership is migration cross border migration from the three adjoining areas in the Russian Far East could negatively affect the partnership. The issue was highlighted by president Putin who in a speech said that in future the children would be speaking not in Russian but Japanese, Chinese, Korean etc.
Recently president Putin traveled to Pyong Yong North Korea and met President Kim Jong-UN and signed a strategic partnership agreement causing unease in China. North Korea was considered as China’s area of influence. Subsequently 3000 Korean troops were sent to Russia to fight along with Russian troops in Ukraine. China was concerned about North Korean troops would gain experience in fighting in foreign lands. Divergence is also apparent on the issue of Arctic Ocean.
Russia has made the Arctic Region as part of its pivot to Asia and his keen to use the economic potential of the region primarily in constructing the Arctic transport route for the Northern Sea Route. On the other hand Chinese white paper on Arctic has begun to identify itself as a near Arctic State. It views the Arctic Ocean as part of global commons and hence has the right in respect of scientific research navigation over flights, fishing, laying of submarine cables and pipelines in the high seas and other relevant areas in the Arctic Ocean.
In July 2024 China signed a strategic partnership agreement with Azerbaijan a post-Soviet state considered as part of Russia’s “Near Abroad” or zone of special interest. For China it is a search for an alternate route in view of sanctions on Russia and Iran. China wanted to ensure that connectivity to Europe was not dislocated.
After the transition to power in the US and the emergence of American Foreign Policy under the leadership of Donald Trump the contours of new global order could be evident. Will it impact on Russian-Chinese strategic partnership?
Concluding Observation
At present Eurasia is witnessing the presence of global as well as regional powers. In the near future or perhaps even in the medium term the partnership will remain sustainable, though strains were apparent earlier. Besides other issues could emerge impacting on the Russian Chinese partnership.
Russian-Chinese partnership will survive primarily because they share a lengthy land border and their focus currently is on achieving their respective goals of emerging superpowers, For the present they need each other’s support and cooperation against the US and its allies. Hence the aims are at the regional level; checkmating the US presence in Eurasia, while ensuring their presence in Central Asia and checkmating the US. At the same time it must be said a lot would depend on the shape of America’s foreign policy in Asia and Eurasia.
Central Asia is another factor that will impinge on the partnership. It is likely that water crisis could lead to conflictual situation among the five CAS. It would be between the upper riparian states Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and lower riparian states Kazakhstan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Besides the problem of Aral Sea drying up as a result of climate change. Initially it was used by Soviet leaders to test nuclear weapons. These issues are serious and could impinge on the partnership. No doubt the US-Russia-China are important factors, other issues are of equal importance. The rise of people’s power. People are restoring to rallies, protest often getting violent as witnessed in Syria, Bangladesh South Korea, refugees etc. Often reports on China say that there is economics slow down causing discontent among the people. The Chinese investment abroad especially in the construction sector and the BRI has not brought the expected results. Moreover world population has increased resulting in migration and refugees. Countries are refusing migrants to their countries due to their own economic problems. For instance Chinese migrants are crossing Russian-Chinese border in the Far East in droves from the adjoining regions of China. If the rate of migration continuous Russia-China relations could take a conflictual turn.
In the year ahead Eurasia is likely to experience struggle for presence and establishing influence, as it is Chinese aim. In the process Eurasia will experience tensions, conflicts etc. At present in the power play between US-Russia-China is for space. Eurasia has been caught in the vortex of international politics. Even at the regional level there are border disputes among the countries has not yet been resolved. For instance, border settlement between the Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, differences between Turkmenistan and Iran on the border question. Water sharing between the Central Asian States is a serious issue and so far the issue remains unresolved. However on the agenda of all countries is search for land routes and trade. Eurasia is possibly going to witness turmoil.
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