The Turning Point

The events of 5 August 2024 in Dhaka, Bangladesh, which led to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ousting and her seeking refuge in India, constitute a grim and controversial tale of political ambitions, corruption, radical Islam, and foreign interference. Central to this gripping narrative of political turmoil and student protests was a contentious court ruling regarding the long-disputed 30% government job quota system instituted by Sheikh Mujib-ur-Rehman following the 1971 Liberation War for the descendants of those involved in the struggle for freedom. The mass uprising against the quota system sent ripples of unrest throughout Bangladesh, which intensified after a particularly violent weekend that resulted in the deaths of several hundred Bangladeshis.

The Quota Imbroglio

The origins of the 2024 quota protests can be traced back to a smaller anti-quota movement in 2018. At that time, the Bangladesh High Court dismissed a petition challenging the legality of the quota system. In response, Sheikh Hasina upheld the quotas for the descendants of liberation war veterans. However, widespread protests this decision compelled her to abolish the quota system entirely. Subsequently, the High Court reinstated the quotas, reigniting public unrest in 2024.

The Appellate Division of the Supreme Court ultimately overturned the High Court’s order. It ruled that 93% of government service positions would be allocated based on merit, while 5% were reserved for freedom fighters and their descendants. Additionally, 1% of jobs were reserved for each of the following groups: ethnic minorities, individuals with disabilities, and sexual minorities. This decision appeared to resolve the contentious quota issue to the satisfaction of most parties. Yet, protests persisted, which raised doubts about their motive, hinting at a broader agenda aimed at regime change.

Speculation arose that the United States had quietly supported the protests to counterbalance China’s growing influence during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure. Simultaneously, Islamic extremist groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami exploited the turmoil, framing it as part of a larger struggle against secularism and government authority. This convergence of Western geopolitical interests and extremist ambitions created a volatile environment, ultimately culminating in Sheikh Hasina’s ouster from power.

The Fall of the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League Government

The government found itself under increasing scrutiny as accusations of widespread corruption, soaring unemployment, and alleged human rights violations began to emerge. In a tale of contrasting fortunes, Hasina’s administration celebrated economic growth and infrastructure advancements. However, critics portrayed a different picture, highlighting the uneven distribution of these benefits that left many people in poverty. An information campaign was launched, alleging authoritarian tendencies on the part of the government, and within the tense political landscape, opposition parties, particularly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), levelled serious accusations against Hasina, claiming she stifled dissent and orchestrated electoral maneuvers to secure her grip on power. Concurrently, the rising tide of Islamic extremism and escalating external pressures converged to create a storm that ultimately led to the downfall of her government.

The political dynamics in Bangladesh reveal a profound ideological conflict between two opposing forces. On one side are the nationalist and democratic factions, epitomized by the Awami League, which championed the Liberation War and envisioned a pluralistic society governed by democratic institutions. On the other side stand the proponents of an Islamic ideological framework for Bangladesh, including groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami and the Razakars, who historically aligned with Pakistan during the Liberation War. The BNP, seeking electoral advantage, has allied itself with these Islamic forces; however, this partnership appears to be one of convenience rather than ideology. Adding to the complexity, the United States has reportedly supported these Islamic groups, aiming to establish a more pliable government that aligns with its strategic interests in the Bay of Bengal.

In addition, Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League has long been intertwined with India, fostering a narrative of regional cooperation and shared growth. Yet, this connection has sparked controversy, as detractors claim that Hasina has sacrificed Bangladesh’s sovereignty to placate New Delhi.

Mohammad Yunus: An Unfolding Journey

The ascent of Mohammad Yunus as the new leader of Bangladesh signifies a notable shift from the governance approach of Sheikh Hasina. Lacking a political base, he has been elevated to the highest rung of power in the interim Bangladesh administration due to his proximity with the Democrat dispensation of the US. He is dependent primarily on the support of the Jamaat and the BNP. Still, his inability to control religious extremism and halt the downslide of the economy will cost him and Bangladesh dearly. The change in the US leadership may also impact his political survival. The unfolding months will need to be closely watched.

Human Rights Amidst Growing Extremism

The recent political turmoil has invigorated Islamic extremists, raising concerns about the decline of secularism in Bangladesh. The unfolding events have cast a long shadow over minority communities, particularly Hindus, who find themselves grappling with a surge in violence and persecution. Accounts of deliberate assaults, coerced conversions, and territorial seizures have provoked global outrage, highlighting the fragile balance of religious coexistence in the nation.
The reactions from the global community have varied significantly. Despite the urgent calls for action from human rights organizations, state responses are often influenced by geopolitical factors. Bangladesh stands at a crossroads, with its strategic position and significance in the Indo-Pacific weaving it into the intricate tapestry of the US-China rivalry, which adds layers of complexity to the pursuit of justice for human rights violations.

The New Great Game

The current political instability in Bangladesh echoes the historical ‘Great Game’ of the 18th century, where the British and Russian empires clashed for dominance in Afghanistan. Today, a contemporary ‘Great Game East’ unfolds in the Bay of Bengal, with Bangladesh occupying a pivotal position akin to Afghanistan’s strategic significance. Sheikh Hasina’s administration fostered closer economic ties with China through active participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), yielding substantial economic benefits. This shift in geopolitical alignment has raised concerns within the United States, leading to countervailing efforts to curtail China’s growing influence in the region. This evolving geopolitical landscape has intensified the longstanding rivalry between the ruling Awami League and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

Indo-Bangladesh Relations

The departure of Sheikh Hasina has introduced uncertainty into the dynamics of India-Bangladesh relations. Under her leadership and the Awami League, the two nations cultivated a robust partnership marked by cooperation in trade, security, and water-sharing agreements. However, the interim government led by Mohammad Yunus has yet to signal a commitment to continuing these policies, raising concerns about its potential stance on critical issues such as counterterrorism, trade, and border stability.

Compounding these challenges is the rise of Islamic extremism, which poses a significant threat to India’s security, particularly in its northeastern regions. New Delhi now stands at a critical juncture, navigating a complex web of challenges. It must carefully balance its strategic interests with the need to uphold democratic values in Bangladesh, ensuring that its approach fosters regional stability and mutual growth.

International Repercussions

The path to stability in Bangladesh hinges on the urgent need for the international community to focus on reinstating a democratically elected government. This involves offering technical and financial assistance to ensure elections are conducted freely and fairly, bolstering civil society, and fostering communication among various political groups.

For India, nurturing strong connections with Bangladesh is vital for fostering regional harmony and economic cohesion. New Delhi must sensitize the Mohammad Yunus administration to the urgent necessity of addressing common challenges, such as cross-border terrorism, climate change, and infrastructure development. The situation in Bangladesh reflects the changing landscape of global relations. As the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to power looms over the US, the narrative surrounding Washington’s strategy in South Asia may shift toward a more transactional nature, emphasizing the need to counter China. How this plays out remains to be seen.

In summary, Bangladesh’s recent political turmoil vividly illustrates the delicate nature of democratic structures and the intricate dynamics of local and global influences. By tackling the underlying issues of the crisis and promoting inclusive governance, Bangladesh can forge a journey towards stability and prosperity, securing its rightful position in the global community.

References

Sheikh Hasina’s Resignation Analysis: Why Hasina Fell?; 2024.

The Rise and Fall off Sheikh Hasina.; 2024.

Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina Falls From Grace in Nation Her Father Founded.; 2024.