Israel-Iran Conflagration: The Coming of the Inevitable

West Asia is the theatre of yet another large-scale conflict that has global implications. By the time of writing this article Israel had hit Iran with several missiles targeting nuclear facilities, defence infrastructure and top military leadership, which led to Iran launching several waves of ballistic Missiles on Israel in retaliation. The terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas in October 2023 and the subsequent invasion of Gaza by Israel had already led to a great crisis in the region. This new wave of kinetic warfare has further complicated the environment of West Asia.  The long-planned and threatened attack comes after a report from the IAEA last week which criticised Iran’s “general lack of cooperation” and mentioned that it had enough uranium enriched to 60% purity, near weapons grade, to potentially make nine nuclear bombs. IAEA’s board of governors had formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in two decades. Nineteen of the thirty-five countries on the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted for the motion, which was backed by the US, UK, France and Germany. 

The attack has once again exposed the relative weakness of the Iranian regime (despite its formidable long-range missile arsenal). The Islamic Republic has been facing several challenges, both on external and internal fronts and is facing perhaps its biggest crisis since the long and bloody war with Iraq in the eighties. Experts have argued that the Israeli attack was in the making for a very long period of time and was perhaps inevitable from the Zionist perspective. The reasons are manifold. Israeli PM Netanyahu, facing domestic pressure and under several investigations for corruption back home, wants to leave a legacy of having neutralised what he alleges to be the biggest existential threat to the country: future potential Iranian nuclear weapons, which he has described as aimed at Western nations too. However, some analysts believe that the primary intention of Israel is not to destroy the alleged nuclear capabilities, but to force a regime change in Iran. Netanyahu’s videos addressing the people of Iran in Persian language, nudging them to bring down the incumbent regime of Ayatollah is a case in point. Moreover, Israel was not comfortable with the negotiations that were continuing between the US and Iran and believed that it would only delay the deployment of the nuclear weapons by Iran but not prevent Iran from acquiring them in the future. The Jewish State also wanted to prove its ability to strike at the heart of nuclear installations in areas like Natanz and assassinate scientists involved in Iran’s nuclear program, thereby deterring others from working for nuclear program in the future; Israel has indeed carried out assasinations of several  scientist in Iran and elsewhere during the last several years.

The context of the attack is too wide to ignore. Iran and Israel do not share a land border and are separated quite a distance. However, Iran had been targeting Israel through its proxies or its ‘axis of resistance’ or the 3Hs- the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen and the Red Sea. After the attack on the Southern settlements in October 2023, Israel has not only invaded Gaza, but has also launched an offensive against Hezbollah and Hamas and has drastically weakened both Hamas and Hezbollah  by wiping out their top leadership, the extermination of these Iranian proxies in Israel’s neighbourhood has given the country en edge.  The assault on Iran has also come after Iran’s another strongest ally in the region, Former Syrian President Bashar al Assad was ousted last year by the HTS. The ousting of Assad led to anarchy in Syria and the rise to power of a ‘pro-American” former terrorist leader, giving Israel an opportunity to carry out themassive destruction of the Syrian air defence system  that acted as an impediment for Israeli air forces to reach Iran.

The role of the US in this attack remains a matter of intense debate. While the US has claimed that it had no role in it, skeptics argue that an attack of such intensity could not have been possible without the support of the US. The question is whether the US-Israel played the good cop-bad cop game as Trump hinted once? The answer is not very clear but Iran believes that the US was instrumental in the success of the Israeli surprise strike. Netanyahu has mentioned that President Trump was informed in advance. The U.S. government, through statements from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump, has publicly denied direct involvement in Israel’s military strikes on Iran. For the Trump administration, the current developments creates a ‘caught between the devil and the deep sea’ like situation.  On one hand President Trump has promised his core voters of bringing America out of ‘endless wars’, but he cannot afford to lose the support of the powerful Jewish lobby either. Last year when Iran fired several missiles on Israel in order to overwhelm its air defence system, there were reports that countries like Jordan helped Israel in intercepting many of those missiles. It would be interesting to see the stand taken by the Arab countries, many of which do not feel comfortable with Israel’s rising hegemony in the region but are also worried about Iran’s increasing nuclear capability and strategic outreach and fear US sanctions. 

Issues for India

Conflicts in West Asia are extremely detrimental to India’s national interests as they put pressure on the country to take sides, thereby challenging India’s carefully crafted  ‘non-alignment’ in conflicts which involve two friendly countries and in situations where India presumes that taking a side won’t change anything on the ground , as was the case for the Russia-Ukraine conflict that started in 2022. So far, India’s official response has been tempered, underscoring the importance of an immediate end of hostilities. New Delhi has advocated for de-escalation and negotiation.. The Israel-Iran dispute involves major issues, as both countries are friendly powers, and as it has mplications for energy security and regional stability. There are chances that if the conflict escalates, it could spell economic troubles for India which is heavily depends on the Persian Gulf region for its energy security. While the SCO has condemned Israel’s action, India has not signed on that resolution. In any case, questions are being raised time to time as to whether India should still be a member of the SCO-an organisation that often acts on behalf of China’s national interest.

 India must prepare for possible interruptions in the Red Sea by diversifying its energy sources and enhancing internal resilience. It will have to diplomatically maintain a delicate balance, working with both Israel and Iran to help end the conflict. India’s deviation from the SCO’s position indicates its intention to prioritise national interests while avoiding the perception that it aligns with the West in general and the US in particular, that is itself very divided at home.