Poland revives old revanchist ambitions

Polish leaders are keen for a coalition under the NATO umbrella to intervene in the Ukraine conflict
Keywords: Poland, Ukraine, War, Russia, Conflict, History, Belarus, NATO, Humanitarian, Wagner
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The looming defeat of Ukraine is likely to trigger a new crisis in Europe, as an agitated Poland may attack Belarus in a desperate move to pull NATO into the conflict. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson, in a conversation with Dialogue Works YouTube channel, observed, “It is no longer possible to pretend that Ukraine is winning… Russia is crushing Ukraine.” Hence, Poland will seek to bring Europe into the war, to foil Russia from reaching its borders after defeating Ukraine, though NATO lacks the military muscle to alter the ground situation. 

Last week, the Polish authorities decided to transfer combat units from the west to the east (towards Belarus). This led to Russian President Vladimir Putin warning, in a meeting with permanent members of his Security Council in Moscow on July 21, 2023, that any Ukrainian aggression against Belarus would mean aggression against Russia and that all means would be used to protect it. Military analysts believe that Russia will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if Poland gets involved in the war, as there will be no Russian population at the front. Larry Johnson said Putin’s assessment of Poland’s intentions towards Ukraine and Belarus indicates detailed intelligence inputs on Poland’s plans.

Amidst these developments, Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko visited Moscow on July 23 and informed President Putin that he is finding it difficult to contain the restiveness of PMC Wagner troops that are demanding permission to go on ‘an excursion’ to Warsaw and Rzeszow in Poland. Lukashenko said, “But of course, I am keeping them in central Belarus like we agreed. We are controlling what is happening (with Wagner). They are in a bad mood.” Putin is reported to have smiled in response. 

Lukashenko also feared that Poland may try to dismember Ukraine and seize some of its lands, a view previously expressed by Putin at a meeting with the permanent members of the Russian Security Council in Moscow, on July 21, 2023. 

At this meeting, Sergei Naryshkin, Director of Foreign Intelligence Service, warned that Warsaw is planning to seize the western parts of Ukraine by deploying troops there, under the guise of fulfilling allied obligations within the Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian security initiative or Lublin Triangle. The plan involves increasing the number of forces in the combined Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian brigade, which operates under the auspices of the Lublin Triangle.

In response, Putin pointed out that European media have already reported this likelihood. Hence, it is vital to remind everyone about several history lessons from the 20th century. The Kiev regime’s sponsors are dejected at the defeat of the Ukrainian counteroffensive after having poured in vast supplies of weaponry (tanks, artillery, armoured vehicles, missiles, and thousands of foreign mercenaries and advisers), all in vain.

The Western military equipment failed, the NATO arsenals and stockpiles of old Soviet weapons in some countries are almost depleted; and the West lacks production capacities to quickly replenish the reserves of equipment and ammunition. Ukraine has suffered huge losses and despite total mobilisation in Ukrainian cities and villages, the regime is having difficulties in recruiting new soldiers. Citizens are becoming aware that their friends and relatives are dying in a war being fought for the selfish interests of others. 

Even in Europe, both citizens and elites realise that Ukraine is an endless waste of money and effort, that serves the interests of the overseas global hegemon, that gains from European weakness. A prolonged conflict in Ukraine suits the US ruling elites, but it is for the American people to decide if it caters to their genuine, vital interests.

The old ambitions of Poland, with its deep hatred to Russia, are being fanned to capitalise on the Ukrainian tragedy. Hence the talk in European media of plans to establish some Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian unit, as a well-organised, equipped regular military unit for operations in Ukraine. The ultimate plan, of course, is to occupy Western Ukraine. Once Polish forces enter Lvov or other Ukrainian territories, they will remain there for good.

Indeed, after the defeat of Germany and its allies in World War I, Poland had occupied Lvov and adjacent territories that belonged to Austria-Hungary. Instigated by the West, Poland took advantage of the turmoil in Russia in 1917 and annexed certain historical Russian provinces, which Russia was forced to concede under the Treaty of Riga in 1921. In 1920, Poland had seized the Wilna (Vilnius) region from Lithuania, a land surrounding the present-day Vilnius. 

After the Munich agreement between Germany, Italy, Great Britain, and France (September 29–30, 1938), that forced Czechoslovakia to surrender its Sudeten region to Nazi Germany, Poland occupied Czechoslovakia’s Cieszyn Silesia. Thus, during the 1920-1930s, Poland’s Eastern Borderlands (comprising present-day Western Ukraine, Western Belarus and part of Lithuania) saw rabid Polonisation and assimilation of local residents, and attempts to suppress the local culture and Orthodoxy (the majority’s religious affiliation).

This culminated in the national tragedy of 1939, when Poland’s Western allies threw it to the German wolf, and Poland lost its independence and statehood, that were later restored by the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union and Stalin gifted Poland substantial German territory in the west. Warsaw, Putin said, needs to remember this.

The Kiev regime, Putin regretted, does not care for the people of Ukraine, Ukrainian sovereignty or national interests, and seeks only to prolong its own existence. Kiev is willing to sell anything, including people and land, just like their ideological forefathers led by Symon Petlyura, who signed “secret conventions” with Poland in 1920 and ceded Galicia and Western Volhynia to Poland in return for military support. These kind of traitors are now preparing to open the gates to their foreign handlers and sell Ukraine again. As this is Ukraine’s internal matter, Russia does not intend to interfere.

Polish leaders are keen for a coalition under the NATO umbrella to intervene in the Ukraine conflict and “regain” their historical territories (modern-day Western Ukraine). Poland also covets Belarusian land.

However, as we noted earlier, Putin has firmly asserted that Belarus is part of the Union State, and an aggression against Belarus would be tantamount to an aggression against the Russian Federation, to which Moscow would give an appropriate response.

References

Former CIA Analyst Johnson: Poland Plans To Attack Belarus To Control Russia, July 23, 2023.

‘Wagner troops asked permission to visit Poland…’: What Belarus’ Lukashenko said during meet with Vladimir Putin, July 23, 2023.

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/wagner-troops-asked-permission-to-visit-poland-what-belarus-lukashenko-said-during-meet-with-vladimir-putin-11690113602064.html

Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council, Moscow, July 21, 2023.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71714

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Sandhya Jain

Sandhya Jain is a political analyst, independent researcher, and author of multiple books. She is also editor of the platform Vijayvaani

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