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History may pronounce US President Donald Trump’s rupture with the Obama-Biden administrations’ policies that led to Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine (Feb 22, 2022) as the defining moment of his second term. This singular act has shaken the moribund post-World War II international order, crafted largely by America and dominated by it, and put questions on the survival of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the European Union. Trump also suspended US military aid to Ukraine (March 3, 2025).
The US President has added to his reputation for unconventional breakthroughs by inviting Russian President Vladimir Putin to help negotiate with Iran about its nuclear program and its support for regional anti-US proxies that seek to destroy Israel. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has confirmed the talks between Washington and Moscow.
As the Ukraine and Iran negotiations will involve time-consuming and skilful diplomacy, they will strengthen the emerging multipolar world of which the BRICS+ alliance is an important pole. European leaders like Georgia Meloni (Italy), Aleksandr Lukashenko (Belarus) and Viktor Orbán (Hungary) have shunned the adventurism of Keir Starmer (UK), Justin Trudeau (Canada), Emmanuel Macron (France), Friedrich Merz (Germany), Dick Schoof (The Netherlands), Pedro Sanchez (Spain), Donald Tusk (Poland) and Anthony Albanese (Australia) who have rallied behind Volodymyr Zelensky.
European Council president Antonio Costa and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen back Zelensky as do the leaders of Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Moldova, Romania, Sweden and Slovenia. However, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told the BBC that he had warned Zelensky after the White House meeting that “we have to respect” what Trump has done for Ukraine so far, and that Zelensky must “find a way” to restore his relationship with the US President.
We now stand at the cusp of an entirely new world order. Trump’s plans for the Gulf region are as yet unknown, but his association with Moscow to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions have worried Tel Aviv. Russia and Iran have signed a 20-year strategic partnership (January 2025).
Israel and Iran have differences over the war in the Gaza Strip.
President Trump addressed a joint session of the US Congress (March 4, 2025) where he refrained from withdrawing from the United Nations, NATO, or the World Trade Organisation (WTO), though rising differences with Beijing could still lead to an exit from the WTO. So far, Trump has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change (Jan 20, 2025), World Health Organisation (Jan 21, 2025), UN Human Rights Council (Feb 5, 2025), and sanctioned the International Criminal Court (Feb 7, 2025).
In his 100-minute address to the US Congress, President Trump asserted that “America is back”, recounted the spate of executive decisions taken in the first six weeks in office, and vowed to refashion the federal government, with emphasis on immigration, trade and national security. Despite a broken economy inherited from the previous administration, Trump said his administration is “fighting to make America affordable again”. In a sharply divided House with Republicans cheering and Democrats protesting (loudly or silently), the President praised Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) for making drastic cuts across the executive branch.
The Trump administration’s epoch-changing salvos include a crackdown on USAID that has for decades been pursuing foreign policy objectives at variance with American interests, with American funds, and without public scrutiny. The stunning disclosures about USAID activities across the globe reveal a subterranean world of professional disruptors in country after country, thriving on US tax dollars, a veritable Augean Stables that Trump has undertaken to clean up.
Americans expect a positive impact on their lives as the Left-Liberal Globalist faction is unravelled and financially disarmed, and religion and culture regain their natural place in society.
BRICS+ stands as an important pillar of a multipolar world, as acknowledged by US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. In a long interview former Fox News host Megyn Kelly (Jan 30, 2025), Rubio declared that unipolarity was an anomaly and the return to multipolarity is a correction by the gravitational forces of geopolitics.
He said, “So it’s not normal for the world to simply have a unipolar power. That was not – that was an anomaly. It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, multi-great powers in different parts of the planet. We face that now with China and to some extent Russia, and then you have rogue states like Iran and North Korea you have to deal with.”
Rubio mentioned Brazil’s trade deal with China, wherein both nations would trade in their own currency, a signature tune of BRICS, though national currencies have been used in bilateral deals between friendly nations. As countries increasingly trade in their own currencies, Rubio mused that it would be impossible for America to sanction “so many nations in five years.” The fact that many nations have nuclear weapons has added volatility to the world.
This suggests a stark realism at the heart of the new administration. Trita Parsi, Swedish writer and co-founder of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, observes that Rubio’s comments deserve attention as the Secretary of State has not only declared unipolarity over, but welcomed the return to multipolarity. Western analysts note that Moscow survived expulsion from the SWIFT banking exchange system by using its rich natural resources to fund its war in Ukraine and build its domestic economy. The dollar, thus, has lost its edge as a punitive weapon against rivals or foes.
This is not to suggest that BRICS will see an unchecked rise in its membership and global influence. By sanctioning the International Criminal Court for its actions against Israel (issuing arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant), and withdrawing from participation at the G20 Johannesburg Summit (Nov 22- 23, 2025), Trump has signalled his displeasure at South Africa for taking Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over its military actions in Palestinian lands (mainly Gaza).
Trump also disapproves of Pretoria trying to reclaim lands occupied by White settlers of the Apartheid regime, a sensitive issue left untouched by Nelson Mandela when he became the first Black President of South Africa. The future of the G20 remains to be seen.
BRICS meanwhile admitted Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Nigeria as ‘partner countries’ as of Jan 1, 2025. But given the new dynamics in the Middle East, with President Trump declaring an intention to takeover Gaza and settle the Palestinian population in Egypt or Jordan (resisted by Egypt, Jordan, major Western and Gulf countries, China and Russia), Saudi Arabia is treading cautiously on the issue of formally joining BRICS.
As the foremost Middle Eastern power, the Saudis are uncomfortable with the trouble in the Red Sea, the crisis in Yemen, the turmoil over Syria, and the humanitarian crisis in Palestine. Since 2022, Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) has sought friendship with Russia, but is anxious not to antagonise Washington. Riyadh is keen on the development of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which is critical to realising MbS’ Vision 2020 and will make Saudi Arabia a key node in Euro-Asian trade.
The World Economic Forum (WEF), hitherto an important global forum for policy on economy, public health (vaccines, population control), agriculture (GM crops) and other issues, is in jeopardy after the USAID turned out to be one of its big funding agencies. Citizens in several European nations are increasingly hostile to the WEF agenda, especially after the COVID pandemic and the controversial vaccines.
Meanwhile, a new mini-multilateral comprising Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, Romania, and Russia, called the Danube-Black Sea Alliance (Jan 2025), plans to set up a sovereign Eurasian partnership. It aims to link the Danube River to the Black Sea as a key trade and infrastructure corridor (Strategic Connectivity); expand influence across Central Europe and into Eurasia (Eurasian Vision); strengthen regional economies without reliance on European Union directives (Economic Sovereignty); and preserve and promote the unique identities and traditions of member nations (Cultural Independence).
Iran remains a major challenge to the US and its Gulf allies. Three days after President Trump took office, Tehran revealed an Underwater Naval Base in an undisclosed location off its coast. Reportedly at an impressive depth of 500 meters below the surface, the base is equipped with new drone speedboats that can launch cruise missiles and evade enemy radar. Possibly Washington’s invitation to President Putin to help contain Tehran ambitions is motivated by this disclosure.
Beijing will doubtless negotiate a mutually acceptable tariff deal with Washington. It will also continue to move along the trajectory of its planned Border Roads Initiative. The US will rebuff it wherever it can, but Beijing is a long player and cannot be written off lightly.
It remains to be seen how much of Ukraine territory will be extracted as Moscow’s price for peace. President Putin had stated that Russia is open to talks on Ukraine (Jan 26, 2025), but that before the expiry of Zelensky’s term as President. As Zelensky had issued an executive order prohibiting talks with Moscow, only a new leader can begin talks. Only Washington can compel Zelensky to hold elections to elect a new president, and this interlude will enable Moscow to further achieve the goals of its special military operation.
Writing for The National Interest (The Ukraine War Cannot End With A Russian Crimea, Jan 9, 2025), Kaush Arha, George Scutaru and Justina Budginaite-Froehly argue that Russia should not be allowed to retain Crimea which it had seized in 2014. This would turn the Black Sea into a Russian lake, cut off the Caucasus and Central Asia from Europe, and pose a threat to the connectivity of the Baltic and Black Seas. However, this argument overlooks the fact that the nations of Russia’s near-abroad, once firmly under Soviet control before they were released by the collapse of the Soviet Union and burnt by Colour Revolutions, now favour close economic and cultural ties with Russia. Thus, Moscow will entrench itself in the old Soviet sphere of influence, with hindrance from the United States.
References
1] Highlights from Trump’s speech to a 2025 joint session of Congress, CBS News, March 4, 2025. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/trump-2025-speech-joint-address-congress/
2] As Trump cozies up to Putin, Russia offers to mediate US-Iran nuclear talks, Times of Israel, March 4, 2025.
3] Europeans embrace Zelensky after he was vilified by Trump, CNN, March 3, 2025.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/03/politics/zelensky-trump-europe-summit-starmer/index.html
4] Donald Trump speech live updates: Reciprocal tariffs against India, China to kick in on April 2, says Trump, India Today, March 5, 2025.
5] How to Protect NATO and Other Alliances From Trump, John Bolton, WSJ, March 2, 2025.
6] What Rubio said about multipolarity should get more attention, Trita Parsi, Feb 03, 2025.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/marco-rubio
7] Secretary Marco Rubio with Megyn Kelly of The Megyn Kelly Show, Jan 30, 2025.
https://www.state.gov/secretary-marco-rubio-with-megyn-kelly-of-the-megyn-kelly-show
8] Saudi Arabia has good reason to dillydally on formally joining BRICS, Andrew Korybko, Feb 5, 2025.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/saudi-arabia-has-good-reason-to-dillydally
9] The Ukraine War Cannot End With A Russian Crimea, National Interest, Jan 9, 2025.
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ukraine-war-cannot-end-russian-crimea-214327
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