Bangladesh Crisis: Why India Should Be Concerned?

Bangladesh, a key neighbor of India, has not been spared from the political instability sweeping across South Asia. The current chaos gripping Bangladesh, including a military takeover and internal conflicts, presents grave concerns for both Bangladesh’s future and the security of India, with its extensive 4000 km border with Bangladesh. As the situation escalates, India needs to adopt a multi-pronged approach focusing on foreign policy, internal security and regional stability to navigate these turbulent times effectively.

Protests against the contentious quota system served as the catalyst for the riots in Bangladesh. At first, government jobs in Bangladesh were reserved for independence warriors and their descendants to the extent of 30%. Following similar demonstrations, this quota was eliminated in 2018, but it was recently reinstated by the Bangladeshi Supreme Court, igniting fresh and intense agitation. The influence of external factors like China and the United States cannot be overruled, as each of them has deep interests in the area, which could be the reason why the situation swiftly got worse. 

At the start of this year, the US questioned the authenticity of Bangladesh’s official election results and later on Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina also mentioned publicly in a press conference that some Christian country wants to create a separate nation out of some parts of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. So, it’s not very difficult to understand what is going on. Equally problematic is China’s involvement, with reports suggesting that it has been pressuring Hasina to allow Beijing a greater involvement in the region, which may explain why she cut short her official visit to China  recently.

The Bangladesh military, historically influential in the country’s politics, took the opportunity of riots to force Hasina to resign immediately. The move reflects the dominance of the military in neighbouring countries, as in Pakistan, where civilian governments often struggle to maintain control. The military coup in Bangladesh not only threatens democracy but also sets a dangerous precedent for future political upheavals in the region.

The ongoing political unrest in Bangladesh will have far-reaching implications for regional stability. A new government in Bangladesh, potentially aligned with the USA and Pakistan or with China, could significantly change the geopolitical situation. The emergence of a Pakistan-Bangladesh de facto confederation would pose a direct threat to India and create an unstable and hostile neighborhood. 

Such a scenario could also embolden extremist elements in Bangladesh, leading to increased violence and instability. The recent history of attacks on Hindu temples and persecution of minorities underscores the potential for sectarian conflict. An influx of illegal refugees into India, particularly from West Bengal and Assam, could exacerbate existing demographic and social tensions in these states.

India’s response to the Bangladesh crisis must be strategic and multifaceted. First, India should continue to support democratic forces in Bangladesh and advocate for a swift return to civilian rule. Diplomatic efforts should be intensified to garner international support for the cause and to emphasize the importance of democracy and stability in South Asia.

The future of India-Bangladesh friendship doesn’t look bright as per the currently unfolding events.  India must do what she can do to strengthen the security framework in the region. In addition, India needs to use its economic influence. Bangladesh’s economy, heavily dependent on textile exports and foreign investment, may be a focus of  pressure. By offering economic incentives and support, India can encourage a pro-India stance in Dhaka and potentially counter the lure of Chinese investment.

India also needs to strengthen its security apparatus internally to handle the potential impact of the Bangladesh crisis. Enhanced border security is paramount to prevent illegal immigration and the infiltration of extremist elements. The Border Security Force (BSF) should be adequately equipped and staffed to handle the increased security requirements on the India-Bangladesh border. Intelligence-sharing and cooperation with the current Bangladeshi authorities should be a priority to track and neutralise threats from extremist groups. 

Besides, India must address the socio-economic issues faced by refugees and migrants from Bangladesh. The provision of humanitarian aid and the integration of refugees into the social fabric of Border States can ease tensions and prevent the rise of xenophobic sentiments. Social programs focused on education, healthcare and employment can help assimilate these populations and reduce the risk of radicalisation.

To ensure long-term stability, India must play a proactive role in promoting regional cooperation. Initiatives such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) should be revitalised with a focus on conflict resolution, economic integration and collective security. By promoting dialogue and cooperation among South Asian nations, India can help build a resilient regional order capable of withstanding external pressures.

India should also press international organisations like the United Nations to emphasise the importance of stability in Bangladesh. Advocacy peacekeeping or observer missions can help monitor the situation and provide a buffer against escalation of the internal turmoil. Supporting democratic forces in Bangladesh by advocating for early general elections, fighting external influences and solving internal security problems will be the key. In addition, promoting regional stability through dialogue and cooperation can help build a resilient South Asia capable of meeting the complex challenges of the 21st century.

In this extremely volatile and ever-changing environment, India’s role as a regional leader is more important than ever. The way forward requires not only strategic foresight but also a commitment to the principles of  pluralism, stability and cooperation that have long defined India’s approach to regional and international relations!