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Georgia’s Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze led his Georgian Dream party to a stunning victory in the parliamentary elections of October 26, 2024, securing 54.24 percent of the vote, taking around 89 of 150 parliamentary seats, and a clear mandate to form the next government. The various opposition parties received 3% to 11%. The immediate consequence was political instability and fears of a Maidan-style coup that had derailed Ukraine’s elected government in 2014.
The pro-West President Salomé Zourabichvili, who once served as the French ambassador to Georgia and acquired citizenship in 2004, immediately cried foul, as did the United States, European Commission president Ursula van de Layen, among others.
President Salome Zourabichvili was quoted on X (Twitter) as saying, “We can’t demonstrate there was any fraud in the election, but that doesn’t matter.” The opposition parties gathered at the presidential palace as President Zourabichvili announced, “I do not recognise these elections. Recognising them would be tantamount to legitimising Russia’s takeover of Georgia… We cannot surrender our European future for the sake of future generations.”
Zourabichvili denounced the polls as “a Russian special operation – a new form of hybrid warfare waged against our people and our country” and urged citizens to protest on October 28 evening on the capital’s main street, Rustaveli Avenue. Thereafter, there was a large demonstration outside the parliament building in Tbilisi on the evening of October 28. Zurabishvili, who spoke at the rally, said she had spoken with representatives of the West, who promised her not to recognise the past elections. The leaders of opposition parties demanded a new vote under “international administration.”
Exit polls had suggested that the four main opposition groups headed by the United National Movement would win a majority; these parties allege that the election was rigged and said they would not join the new legislature. Tina Bokuchava of the pro-Western Unity-National Movement (UNM) party which won a little over 10% of the votes, accused the central election committee of “stealing the European future” of Georgia. Nika Gvaramia of the ‘Coalition for Changes’ party also refused to recognise the results.
International observers complained of an uneven campaign playing field, but refrained from calling the elections fraudulent. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) reported that it had observed no systemic voting irregularities, but claimed to have noticed incidents of vote-buying and pressure on public sector employees. However, it praised the diversity of choices on the ballot.
The 2024 elections are significant as Georgia is moving towards a fully parliamentary system. Later this year, the President will be elected indirectly by an electoral college comprising members of the new parliament and regional and local authorities. As the Georgian Dream Party controls the Parliament, a new President is almost certain.
Georgia is a Christian, conservative country that wishes to join the European Union on its own terms. In 2024, its Parliament approved laws that allow NGOs to be labelled as ‘foreign agents’ and banned LGBTQ ‘propaganda’ to minors, both of which were perceived as reflecting Moscow’s influence, and led to protests. The law bans same-sex marriages, adoption by same-sex couples, gender-affirming care, public endorsement of LGBTQ+ relations and people, and depictions of them in the media. It outlaws Pride events and public displays of the rainbow flag, and censors them in films and books. The Georgian Dream party leaders said that the law was necessary to safeguard the country’s traditional moral standards.
The bill was voted through on September 17, 2024, and vetoed by President Zourabichvili, but her decision was overturned in parliament. Bulgaria and Hungary have also recently passed anti-LGBTQ+ “propaganda” laws.
Georgia’s June 2024 law on ‘foreign agents imposed stricter controls on international organisations, particularly pro-Western civil society associations, that angered a section of society. The Georgian Dream had declared that if it won a constitutional majority in parliament (113 of 150), it would ban the collective National Movement and main pro-Western opposition groups from further political participation. It has failed to secure this super-majority, but the pro-West section of Georgian civil society is now in an existential fight for survival.
The Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili recently accused the opposition groups of ‘provoking’ the 2008 Georgian war against Russia. The party is committed to winning back the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which may be unrealistic, but requires close cooperation with Moscow.
Georgia drew closer to Russia after the military operation in Ukraine in 2022. This prompted Washington to suspend US$ 95m in aid, and curbs on defence cooperation are now likely. Georgia’s accession to the European Union is already on hold due to its adoption of controversial legislation (on NGOs and LGBTQ+). The July 2024 NATO Summit did not even mention Georgian membership prospects.
The US has threatened Georgia with “consequences.” At a press conference on October 28, 2024, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said the election was held in an “environment shaped by the ruling party’s policies including misuse of public resources, vote buying, and voter intimidation.” He urged “Georgia’s governing officials to consider the relationship they want with the Euro-Atlantic community rather than strengthening policies that are praised by authoritarians.” Western governments warned Georgia that its recent policies could hamper the country’s aspirations to join the EU.
Chinese government spokesperson Lin Jian, at a press conference on October 29, 2024, said, “We noted that the election in Georgia has been held smoothly. China, as always, respects the choice of the Georgian people and sincerely hopes for stability and prosperity in Georgia. China stands ready to work with Georgia to continuously move forward bilateral relations.”
Amidst reports that the West has sent snipers trained in Ukraine to Georgia, Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who holds the rotating presidency of the EU Council, made a surprise visit to Tbilisi on October 28, 2024. Informed official sources told RIA Novosti that, “Westerners, in an attempt to shake up the internal political situation in Georgia after the elections on October 26 and provoke another “colour revolution” do not shun anything: snipers trained in Ukraine are arriving in the republic to organize provocations during mass protests.”
TASS had previously reported that Kyiv had sent an extremist group coordinator to Georgia including former “Azov” militant Avaliani Zakro Nodarovich, a Ukrainian citizen born in Mariupol in 1997. Four people in military uniforms with Georgian and Ukrainian chevrons were spotted among the protesters outside the parliament building in Tbilisi.
In Tbilisi, Orbán praised Georgia’s elections as “free and democratic”, even as 13 EU countries, including Germany and France, denounced his visit as “premature” and lacking the mandate to speak for the European Union. Undeterred, Orbán pointed out that the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe had noted that the elections were “well organised and orderly” but found a “tense environment” and “widespread reports of pressure on voters”, including cases of intimidation, coercion and vote-buying that “compromised” the secrecy of the vote. Speaking to the media, he said, “I read the assessment of international organisations and I see that nobody dares question that this election was a fair and democratic election. Alongside all the criticism nobody dared go that far.”
Orbán supported Georgia’s keenness to join the EU, and said the country would be ready for membership “by the end of the decade.” He appreciated the fact that Kobakhidze “did not allow your country to turn into a second Ukraine.”
Hungary’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Peter Szijártó, supported the election verdict, saying, “Nothing new under the Sun: on Saturday, it wasn’t Brussels’ or the liberal mainstream’s designated winners who took the election in Georgia, but the sovereign, peace-focused, family-oriented ruling party that openly prioritizes national interests.” He said that after the clear defeat of the liberals, the usual attacks began with claims that the election wasn’t fair, that democracy in Georgia is lacking, and so on. What was especially notable, he said, is that one of the leading critics is the Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, whose party just lost the Lithuanian polls (October 27, 2024).
References:
- Washington issues new threat to Georgia, RT, 28 Oct, 2024
https://www.rt.com/russia/606652-us-threaten-georgia-election
- Oct 28, 2024 https://twitter.com/_AfricanSoil/status/1850904474539135292
- Georgia’s president says election ‘has been stolen’, DW, Jenipher Camino Gonzalez, October 28, 2024.
https://www.dw.com/en/georgia-election-stolen-president-says-eu-russia/a-70621642
- Alleging ‘Russian special operation,’ Georgian president calls for protests over disputed election, CNN, Jill Dougherty, October 27, 2024.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/27/europe/georgia-election-russia-protests-intl-latam/index.html
- Georgian election results may challenge nation’s socio-political stability, The Loop, Dennis Shen.
- Georgia’s pro-Western opposition refuses to accept election defeat, RT, 27 Oct, 2024.
https://www.rt.com/russia/606589-georiga-opposition-refuse-accept-defeat
- Washington issues new threat to Georgia, RT, 28 Oct, 2024.
https://www.rt.com/russia/606652-us-threaten-georgia-election
- Georgian parliament approves anti-LGBTQ+ law in lockstep with Russia, Euronews with AP, 17 September 2024.
- Georgian election results may challenge nation’s socio-political stability, The Loop, Dennis Shen.
- Washington issues new threat to Georgia, RT, 28 Oct, 2024.
https://www.rt.com/russia/606652-us-threaten-georgia-election
- Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian’s Regular Press Conference on October 29, 2024.
- Sources reported the arrival of snipers trained in Ukraine in Georgia, Euromedia, 28 October 2024.
https://www.euromedia24.com/en/post/4624
- Orbán praises Georgian election as he faces backlash from EU countries over ‘premature’ visit, Euronews, 29 October 2024.
- Péter Szijjártó: The election in Georgia was won not by the power offered by Brussels and the liberal “mainstream”, but by the ruling party that supports sovereignty, peace and family, Reuters, 28 October 2024.
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