The Riyadh-Islamabad security pact, possibly including Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella, is a White House-backed signal to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to control his aggression in the Gulf region. The invitation to other Gulf countries to join the alliance decisively completes Islamabad’s tilt towards its western neighbours as originally envisaged by the British Empire when it carved out a Muslim state from the Indian subcontinent, to serve as an Anglo-American sentinel in this oil-rich and strategic Muslim enclave. Current indications suggest that Qatar, UAE, Jordan, and Egypt may join the alliance to protect their sovereignty.
As Pakistan accommodates more US military personnel on its soil, it directly threatens Afghanistan, where Washington is keen to regain control of the Bagram airbase. President Donald Trump warned on his social media account, “If Afghanistan doesn’t give Bagram Airbase back to those that built it, the United States of America, BAD THINGS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN!!! President DJT”.
We may note that the base was built by the Soviet Union in the 1950s, and that the US under President Biden hurriedly left the country in 2021, abandoning US$ 7.2 billion in vehicles, weapons, and gear, and giving a walkover to the Taliban who have since ruled the country.
The Taliban government firmly resisted Trump’s demand, saying, “This is Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan, and it will remain under the control of the Islamic Emirate as long as this true system and ideology endures.” Unconfirmed reports said a fee for the base is being negotiated. Given that armed groups from Kabul and Islamabad frequently exchange fire along the border, Pakistan feels strengthened by its successful diplomacy with Riyadh.
India, enjoying good relations with several of the Gulf states, may feel relatively less threatened by the new alignment as virtually all nations today practice multi-alignment. Officially, Washington continues to back Israel, but the arrival of a second nuclear power in the region provides Riyadh (rattled since Tel Aviv’s attack on Qatar on September 9, 2025) with a guardian possessing nuclear weapons. Pakistan offers a sense of security to the Arab nations which feel that existing US bases in the region, billions in purchased American weapons, and military ties with the US, are not enough.
The entire Arab world grew more apprehensive after the Israeli bombing raid on the Hamas delegation in Doha with apparent acquiescence of the United States. This, combined with the attacks on Gaza, spurred Gulf states to seek security outside the US aegis. Although Qatar called an emergency summit on September 15, little emerged besides a proposal by Egypt to create a united, NATO-style military force that it had previously mooted at the 2015 Arab summit held in Sharm El Sheikh. As Egypt commands the Arab world’s largest army, it favours a Cairo-based joint military command. It mooted a force of 20,000 troops as the first step towards forming the coalition. However, Qatar and the UAE blocked Egypt’s proposal. Nevertheless, Iran and Pakistan concurred. Mohsen Rezaei, a former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, warned that Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iraq could become future targets unless the bloc acts decisively. Pakistan proposed a joint task force to monitor Israeli actions and to adopt coordinated deterrent and offensive measures. But it is unlikely that these plans will materialise as Washington is wholly committed to Israel and Netanyahu. After Egypt deployed the Chinese-made HQ-9B air defense system in the Sinai, Israel urged the US to put pressure on Cairo to stop its military build-up aimed at Tel Aviv.
President Trump is clearly crafting a new global alliance system where regional nuclear powers serve as security providers for allies with conflicting interests. Given its strong ties with the region, India is closely monitoring the possible impact on its ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) that would connect India to Europe via Saudi Arabia. Trump’s moves have already scuttled the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia, and the I1U2 comprising Israel, India, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States will be the next to go.
Since Pakistan has moved closer into Washington’s embrace, Beijing, which has hitherto supplied over 80 per cent of Pakistan’s weapon imports, will recalibrate its strategy. Seeing the writing on the wall, China recently withdrew funding from the Main Line-1 railway upgrade that was Pakistan’s most ambitious project within the the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Phase-2.
Yemen’s Houthi fighters pose a challenge for Riyadh, and under the recently signed bilateral pact, Pakistan sent 25,000 troops to the Saudi–Yemen border (September 19, 2025). Saudi Arabia expects to use ‘leased’ Pakistani soldiers and military equipment, against the Houthis, which will also benefit Israel. The Houthis declared that they would “turn the Yemen–Saudi border into a graveyard for Pakistani soldiers.” They will probably continue to target Israel with more missile attacks.
Complicating matters for India, President Trump has decided to revoke the 2018 sanctions exemption for the India-operated Chabahar Port in Iran from September 29, 2025. The waiver had allowed India to sign a 10-year deal in 2024 to develop and run Chabahar, and bypass Pakistan to access Afghanistan and Central Asia. Chabahar was also a strategic counter to Pakistan’s Gwadar port that was part of China’s ambitious Maritime Silk Road. Now, the Gwadar development project may not take off as China is rethinking its Belt and Road projects with Islamabad, but India still needs access to Central Asia and Afghanistan.
During President Trump’s first term in office, in 2019, India stopped buying Iranian crude in the face of US sanctions. This made China virtually the sole buyer of Iranian oil at attractive discounts, and that increased the PRC’s energy security. Now, Trump’s unilateral attempts to impose a new world order under America’s hegemony have compelled Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Arab world, and Africa to review their options.
Swarajya’s senior editor Prakhar Gupta noted that Saudi authorities had kept India in the loop during the negotiations with Pakistan. Therefore New Delhi was not completely blindsided by the pact. Gupta pointed out that the security guarantee is similar to NATO’s Article 5 as it commits partners to mutual support, but not to automatic intervention, and an actual military response would be decided in response to circumstances. The agreement does not explicitly mention nuclear weapons, although a senior Saudi official said that all military means are covered in the pact.
By giving Riyadh a military cover at a time of emotional vulnerability, Pakistan is repaying the kingdom for its loans, sales of oil on credit, and currency deposits intended to stabilise Islamabad’s shrinking foreign exchange reserves. The pact satisfies the Pakistani military’s dream of leading the Muslim world under the umbrella of its nuclear arsenal.
On its part, India will quietly bolster cooperation with friendly Gulf states like the UAE and perhaps Oman while reiterating its own independent security posture. Strategic analysts believe that General Asif Munir’s belligerence, which led to Operation Sindoor in May 2025 and his two quick trips to the United States thereafter, showed his sense of empowerment, bolstered by the security pact with Saudi Arabia. These are all warning signals from the US to New Delhi. Washington intends to sell billions of dollars’ worth of armaments to the Kingdom, to be operated by the Pakistani military. It is inconceivable that some of this weaponry will not make its way to the Indo-Pakistan border.
References:
1) Saudi Arabia signs mutual defence pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan, Al Jazeera, September 17, 2025.
2) Monday briefing: Israel’s bombing of Qatar threatens the fabric of Gulf security, Guardian, September 15, 2025.
3) China supplied 81% of Pakistan’s arms imports in the past 5 years, SIPRI says, South China Morning Post, March 16, 2025.
4) China exits Pakistan’s $60 billion economic corridor project; Islamabad turns to ADB for funding, Financial Express, September 5, 2025.
5) Saudi-Pakistan Security Pact: Answers To The Most Important Questions Here, Swarajya, September 19, 2025.
6) Saudi Arabia to support Yemeni government with around $368 million, source says, Reuters, September 20, 2025.
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