National Interests range across a broad array of topics which a country wants to promote for overall development and growth. They comprise economic development, political stability, social wellbeing, and a strong military, all of which ensure and protect a nation’s values and ideals in the global arena. National Security is a subset of the National Interest and is primarily concerned with protecting a country’s prosperity and territorial integrity, discouraging external and internal threats as part of the overall National Interest.
Assassination of Prime Minister Liaqat Ali Khan
On the eve of Pakistan’s independence, Prime Minister Liaqat Ali Khan, Pakistan’s first PM and a seasoned politician, had a difficult task ahead of him, to govern the new nation. There were no established democratic institutions, post-partition migration issues were overwhelming the nation, a new constitution was to be written, and economic, foreign, and other policies had to be drafted. While the work on these matters had just begun, the 1st Kashmir War started and lasted till 1948. Despite all the hardships he faced, he did lay strong foundations for Pakistan’s economic development and charted a Non-Aligned path for the new nation.
Two bullets were fired by Sayyid Akbar Babrak, a Pushtoon Afghan national, at 4.30 PM on 16 Oct 1951, killing Liaquat Ali Khan while he was addressing a public gathering at Company Bagh (now Liaquat Bagh), the assassin was shot dead by the police, taking his secrets with him while changing the path for Pakistan.
The Aftermath
Primacy of National Security. After the assassination, between 1951 and 1958, the last era of civilian rule was shaped by the Pakistani Army’s pro-Western narrative about the threat posed by Communism. Pakistan joined the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) and the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), breaking with Liaquat Ali’s non-alignment principles. Then came military successive takeovers, starting on 27 October 1958. National Security policies trumped the broader national interest, on the grounds that Pakistan was under an existential threat. The growing Russian presence in Afghanistan and the avoidable wars started by Pakistan in 1965, 1971, and 1999, were used to justify the primacy given to National Security.
The Ruling Elite. The rise of Pakistan’s permanent Ruling Elite can also be attributed to the assassination of Liaquat Ali, which created a power vacuum, leaving non-democratic forces, primarily the Army and the bureaucracy, to assert control. Backed by the armed forces, its rise over time is attributed to dynastic politics (mainly between the Bhuttos and Sharifs), judicial and legislative engineering through patronage networks, and the promotion of select foreign alliances. The contemporary Pakistan’s ruling elite includes armed forces, industrialists, feudal landlords, politicians, top bureaucrats, and the judiciary. It amounts only to about 1% of the population, indulges in corrupt practices, bends the Constitution, and controls the country’s wealth and policies to the detriment of the other 99%. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan in 2021 had also pointed this out when he noted that the nation was a victim of “elite capture”. The leitmotif of a perpetual existential threat, earlier from communism and later from India, has been used to control the Pakistani population for the survival of this ruling elite and is responsible for what ails Pakistan today.
Contemporary Pakistan at a Glance
Importance of Punjab. The region of Punjab provides between 70 to 75 % of the personnel of the armed forces, it also contains at least 50% of the country’s population, thereby determining the results of the central elections (subtly helped by the armed forces). Hence both the Armed Forces and the polity are Punjab-centric, using the rest of Pakistan as their colonial playground..
Economy. The economy, as per Moody’s is a stable CAA1, up from CAA2, a country where remittances from its diaspora equal its foreign exports. The biggest component of Pakistan’s budget however goes for debt servicing, now reaching 47 %, followed by Defence spending. Social development has been on the back burner, receiving ever lower percentages of the budget. A case in point is the education & health care sectors, accounting together for less than 4% of the budget while UNESCO Guidelines require a minimum 4% for education alone.
Foreign Support. China is the only country so far to stand with Pakistan through thick and thin, the USA and the West come and go as their momentary interests demand, while the Gulf countries are bound to Pakistan by religion and by the security services provided to some of them by Pakistan’s armed forces. The important thing to understand is that China and Pakistan do not share ethnicity or ideology. It is the army that has maintained strong relations with China, with the economic benefits accruing more to China than to the local population.
Internal Ethnic Fault Lines. Urdu is the National language of Pakistan, it is not the native language of any of the administrative units of Baluchistan, Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and PoK (Azad Kashmir). This tells us why these administrative regions are hostile to the central rule (we can say the ruling elite) for reasons ranging from ethnic conflicts to resource distribution and religious differences
Terrorism as an Instrument of National Policy. Pakistan has been using irregulars since the first Kashmir war, and later trained and led Mujahidin in Afghanistan to fight the Soviets, with the blessings of the United States Government. Using terror and terrorism in the name of religion as a method for waging war has become a recognised instrument of Pakistan’s National Policy. Its rulers have used it to widen the fault lines in the Indian states of Punjab and Kashmir. This far-flung domestic religious terror network, has now permeated all sections of society and challenges the central government as well.
Resource Conflicts. Water distribution conflict between Punjab and Sindh, Sui Gas field’s economic benefits not reaching Baluchistan, reliable electricity supply only in Punjab and Sindh (if at all) are some of the resource conflicts that plague Pakistan. It is mainly the army and the elite that decide on the policies and capture the resources for their primary benefit, thereby fuelling regional mistrust.
Demographic Bomb. Pakistan has an increasing population with one of the lowest medians in South Asia (22 years), even younger than India (28 years). This demographic dividend should have given Pakistan an economic advantage. However, with poor development predicted for the future, unemployment well above 10%, increasing religious radicalisation, a shrinking education budget, and the increasing wealth of a tiny elite, this demographic dividend is indeed a ticking time bomb.
Conclusion
The forces behind, and the reason for the assassination of Pakistan’s first Prime Minister remain mysterious until today. That crime led Pakistan away from the intended trajectory to turn into a military ally of the USA and later a vassal of China, consolidating in the process a ruling elite that looks after its own and has slowly brought Pakistan to the brink of an abyss. Internal conflicts over resources, sluggish development, rampant terrorism, and ethnic rivalries have began to tear apart the fabric of the country. The tipping of the scale may be brought about by the restless youth, frustrated by stagnation and lack of prospects. A regime change similar to the recent ones in Nepal and Bangladesh may just be around the corner, and the bogey of an existential threat to Islam and the nation will surely be used by the Pak Army & Ruling Elite to delay the outcome. We should prepare for the consequences of that imminent domestic crisis, as its fallout will surely affect India in a major way.
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