The unwarranted reference to Kashmir by China and Pakistan in their joint press statement after PM Nawaz Sharif’s four-day visit to Beijing serves the vanity of Pakistan and panders to the people’s surcharged emotions about Kashmir. The statement is a bundle of contradictions. If the so-called Kashmir issue is to be resolved in accordance with the UNSC resolutions, particularly of 1948-9, the first condition of that resolution demanded that Pakistan withdraw all its fighting men in PoK, regular troops and proxies. Pakistan trivialised the recommendation by not only ignoring the requirement to withdraw its fighters from Kashmir, but also by recruiting dozens of jihadist fighting groups on its soil, who have become Pakistan’s active and lethal proxies in Kashmir.
Secondly, India and Pakistan signed the Shimla Agreement in 1962, in which both countries agreed to eschew force and resolve the Kashmir issue through dialogue. Under the UN regulations, if the warring parties in a bilateral issue mutually agree and sign an agreement, proposing to eschew force and resolve the issue through dialogue, Pakistan, with hindsight, is a culprit of breaking the Shimla Resolution. This was exactly what the then UN Secretary General Kofi Annan had told the media in a press conference in Islamabad.
J&K formally acceded to India in the aftermath of the India Independence Act. No power on earth can reverse that historical decision endorsed by the Kashmir freedom fighters against colonial rule during their four-decade-long struggle. The fate of a historic nation cannot be changed by a few people with vested interests. Besides, possession is the ninth part of the law.
The above mentioned Sino-Pak statement has come in a particular political context. The two–month–long Pakistani mediation effort between Iran and the United States, backed up covertly by Beijing, ultimately flopped. It had to because the negotiating country happens to be the epicentre of international terrorism. It was aware that China continued to supply critical war equipment, drones and missiles, etc. to Iran for sustained resistance. Islamabad, which hosts American nuclear weapons in Nur Khan and Sargodha, was negotiating with Iran, asking the Iranian side to give up nuclear ambitions. The failure of Pakistan’s flawed mediation increased the chances for India’s more useful and productive handling of the disputing parties. Beijing was quick to understand how India could utilise the opportunity for refurbishing its international profile.
Secondly, the US Secretary of State was scheduled to be in India along with his entourage to interact with the Indians and also to attend the meeting of the Quad foreign secretaries. President Xi had sensed that after his cold shouldering of President Trump in Beijing, Trump was likely to claim that India was America’s democratic partner. Therefore, he invited all three chiefs of Pakistan’s power structure, the PM, Deputy PM and Army Chief to Beijing during Mark Rubio’s four-day visit to India.
For unknown reasons, Trump has shown no enthusiasm for the Quad. Consequently, Beijing had not been racking up the Quad issue for some time, particularly when Indian Prime Minister Modi had categorically said that India was interested much more in free maritime trade rather than creating military blocs. However, the sudden revival of interest in Quad and particularly the meeting of its foreign secretaries in India was a matter of some anxiety for President Xi.
President Xi had more than one purpose in summoning the Pakistani trio to Beijing. The first and foremost was to reprimand them seriously for their failure to secure a ceasefire in the Gulf and ensure the safe sailing of cargo ships carrying oil stocks to China. Remember China has a 25-year multi-billion dollar deal with Iran in exchange for an uninterrupted flow of Iranian oil at very reasonable prices. Secondly, Xi very subtly made the Pakistani PM realise that his army commander had been developing extraordinary closeness to President Trump, and the grapevine had it that Trump is only bidding his time for General Asif Munir to take full power. After all, it was Asif Munir who cleared the landing and refuelling facilities to the American jets striking Iranian targets.
Lastly, the referral to the Kashmir issue was brought in to assuage the bruised feelings of the Pakistani Premier. The statement contains nothing but rhetoric. China mentioned Kashmir only to warn India that she must be careful in defining the goals of Quad.
New Delhi should take serious notice of the completion of the freight railway line from Eastern China (Xian) to Tehran in Iran, across Afghanistan. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. All these states have willingly welcomed the rail link to Iran, which reduces China’s dependence on the Hormuz and Malacca Straits for shipping Iranian oil.
India will also need to push for an overland rail link via Saudi Arabia, to the Mediterranean and beyond to Europe, although prospects for that are dim for the foreseeable future given the intractable conflicts in West Asia. Geostrategic factors are critical, and India cannot remain a spectator while the wider Central Asian region is being reorganised by China. The boiling Iranian political cauldron may not cool down anytime soon.
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