France’s political system is experiencing one of its most unsettled periods since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958. Since early 2024, four prime ministers have tried, and mostly failed, to govern without a majority in the National Assembly. Macron’s approval rating sits near historic lows, and no single party controls parliament. Compounding this is the long-running legal case against Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, over the misuse of European Parliament funds, which has now become a decisive factor in the 2027 presidential race. This article looks at three things in turn: the current state of the French government and parliament, the legal mechanics and final outcome of Le Pen’s case, and what recent triangulated polling data indicate about her and her party’s chances heading into next year’s election.
A Fragmented Parliament and a Revolving Door of Governments
Since Macron called snap elections in June 2024, the National Assembly has been split three ways, with no majority in sight. In the second round, the leftist New Popular Front coalition took the most seats, around 180, ahead of Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance with roughly 160, and the National Rally and its allies, close behind, with about 140 to 143.[1] The RN remains the largest party in the chamber, even though the left and centrist blocs together outnumber it. This arithmetic has made governing difficult. Michel Barnier fell in December 2024 after lawmakers from both the left and the RN joined forces to oppose him.[2]
François Bayrou fell in September 2025, losing a confidence vote he called himself by 364 votes to 194, after proposing 44 billion euros in cuts to bring the deficit down from 5.8 percent of GDP towards a 2026 target of 4.6 percent, still above the European Union’s 3 percent limit.[3] His successor, Sébastien Lecornu, survived two no-confidence motions in October 2025, one falling just 18 votes short of the 289 needed to remove him, and another in July 2026 over the government’s handling of a deadly summer heatwave, which drew only 132 of the 289 votes needed.[4] Public approval reflects this churn. An Ifop poll from June 2026 found that only 21 per cent of French people were satisfied with Macron, while 79 per cent were dissatisfied, whereas Lecornu polled somewhat better at 32 per cent.[5]
The Case against Le Pen
Le Pen’s legal troubles stem from a seven-year investigation into how the National Rally paid its European Parliament assistants between 2004 and 2016. In March 2025, a Paris court ruled that Le Pen was at the centre of what it called “a fraudulent system” that diverted about 2.9 million euros in EU funds intended for those aides.[6] The court fined her party 2 million euros, half suspended, fined Le Pen personally 100,000 euros, and sentenced her to four years in prison, two suspended and two to be served under an electronic tag. Most consequentially, it barred her from elected office for five years, effective immediately, a ruling that would have kept her out of the 2027 race.[7]
Le Pen appealed. The appeal trial opened on January 13, 2026, ran for roughly five weeks, and the Paris Court of Appeal delivered its verdict on July 7, 2026.[8] The court upheld her conviction but reduced the sentence to three years in prison, with one year to be served under an electronic tag, and kept the 100,000-euro fine. It reduced her ineligibility from five years to 45 months, 30 of which weresuspended. Since more than 15 months had already passed since her original conviction, she became immediately eligible to run.[9] She can still appeal to the Court of Cassation, France’s highest court for legal review, which examines how the law was applied rather than re-examining the facts. Such a review could take about six months, so it may not conclude before voters go to the polls.[10]
What the Polls Say
Polling conducted immediately after the ruling shows Le Pen in a strong position. An Ifop survey for Le Figaro and LCI, conducted on 7–8 July 2026 among 984 registered voters, put her ahead of former prime minister Édouard Philippe 54 to 46 per cent in a hypothetical runoff, ahead of Gabriel Attal 55 to 45, and ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon 70 to 30.[11] A separate Elabe poll of 1,503 adults found the RN candidate drawing 34 to 35.5 per cent of first-round voting intention, a gain of three points since March.[12] Ipsos BVA surveys have similarly shown the leading RN figure and the strongest rival both drawing between 31 and 36 per cent in the first round.[13]
The picture was less settled only days earlier, when an Ifop Fiducial poll had Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s 30-year-old deputy and heir apparent, outperforming her, 37 per cent to 32 per cent, a reminder of how open the succession question remains.[14] Mélenchon, despite strong support among younger voters, polls at only around 13 to 13.5 per cent and is regularly named France’s most disliked politician.[15]With Le Pen now cleared to stand, at least for now, France heads towards an April 18, 2027 first round and a possible May 2 runoff, as a far-right movement looks closer than ever to winning the presidency.[16]
[1]“French Legislative Election Results: Leftist Alliance Wins Most Seats, Le Pen and Far Right Fail to Carry First Round Victory,” Bloomberg, July 8, 2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-french-election-results/; “2024 French Legislative Election,” Wikipedia, accessed July 24, 2026, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election.
[2]“French Govt Collapses as PM Barnier Loses No Confidence Vote,” All India Radio News on Air, December 5, 2024, https://www.newsonair.gov.in/french-govt-collapses-as-pm-barnier-loses-no-confidence-vote.
[3]“French Government Collapses in a Confidence Vote, Forcing President Emmanuel Macron to Seek yet Another Prime Minister,” Associated Press via ABC7 Los Angeles, September 8, 2025, https://abc7.com/post/french-government-collapses-confidence-vote-forcing-president-emmanuel-macron-seek-another-prime-minister/17779488/; “French Prime Minister François Bayrou Ousted in Confidence Vote,” CNBC, September 8, 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/08/french-prime-minister-francois-bayrou-ousted-in-confidence-vote.html.
[4]“French PM Sébastien Lecornu Survives Two No Confidence Votes,” All India Radio News on Air, October 16, 2025, https://www.newsonair.gov.in/french-government-survives-no-confidence-motion-by-18-votes; “French Government Survives No Confidence Vote over Heatwave Handling,” Reuters via U.S. News & World Report, July 6, 2026, https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-07-06/french-government-survives-no-confidence-vote-over-heatwave-handling.
[5]Ifop Group, “Popularity Ratings, Ifop Opinion Poll, June 2026,” Ifop, June 22, 2026, https://www.ifop.com/en/article/popularity-ratings-ifop-opinion-poll-june-2026.
[6]Al Jazeera Staff, “France’s Court of Appeal to Rule on Le Pen Conviction,” July 7, 2026; Gavin Blackburn, “Paris Court Sets 7 July for Ruling in Far Right Leader Marine Le Pen’s EU Funds Graft Appeal Case,” Euronews, February 11, 2026, https://euronews.com/2026/02/11/paris-appeals-court-sets-7-july-for-ruling-in-far-right-leader-marine-le-pens-eu-funds-mis.
[7]Al Jazeera Staff, “France’s Court of Appeal to Rule on Le Pen Conviction,” July 7, 2026.
[8]Juliette Jabkhiro, “France Court to Hear Le Pen Appeal against Political Ban in January,” Reuters, September 8, 2025, https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/france-court-hear-le-pen-141305344.html.
[9]“With Marine Le Pen’s Sentence the Judiciary Is Giving French Citizens the Final Say on Her Political Future,” The Conversation, July 2026, https://theconversation.com/with-marine-le-pens-sentence-the-judiciary-is-giving-french-citizens-the-final-say-on-her-political-future-287029; “France’s Right Wing Leader Marine Le Pen Cleared to Run in 2027 Election, but under Conditions She’s Rejected,” CBS News, July 8, 2026, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/france-marine-le-pen-right-wing-leader-cleared-run-presidential-election/.
[10]Al Jazeera Staff, “France’s Court of Appeal to Rule on Le Pen Conviction,” July 7, 2026.
[11]Anthony J. Constantini, “Poll Show Le Pen Beating Any Opponent in 2027 Presidential Election,” Brussels Signal, July 9, 2026, https://brusselssignal.eu/2026/07/poll-show-le-pen-beating-any-oppenent-in-2027-presidential-election/.
[12]“Le Pen Extends Lead in French Election Poll after Court Ruling,” Fortune, July 11, 2026, https://fortune.com/2026/07/11/marine-le-pen-france-president-election-poll-rn-far-right-national-rally-party/.
[13]“France’s Right Wing Leader Marine Le Pen Cleared to Run in 2027 Election,” CBS News, July 8, 2026; “France’s 2027 Presidential Election: Can the Far Right National Rally Win without Le Pen?,” France 24, June 29, 2026, https://www.france24.com/en/france/20260629-french-2027-presidential-election-can-the-rn-win-without-le-pen-bardella.
[14]“French Far Right Ponders Life beyond Le Pen as Appeal Ruling Looms,” Arab News, July 2, 2026, https://www.arabnews.com/node/2649365/world.
[15]“France’s 2027 Presidential Election: Can the Far Right National Rally Win without Le Pen?,” France 24, June 29, 2026.
[16]“Marine Le Pen Leads 2027 French Presidential Race as Europe Weighs Risks,” The New Voice of Ukraine, July 2026, https://english.nv.ua/nation/marine-le-pen-leads-2027-french-presidential-race-as-europe-weighs-risks-50625558.html.
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