Iran responded a day after the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatullah Khameni, 40 senior Commanders including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Mohammad Pakpour, and close family members on the morning of February 28, 2026. Unexpectedly, the Old World Order melted away, to be replaced by a New World Disorder.
The same day (Feb 28), 168 students and 14 teachers were killed when an elementary school in Minab was hit twice by US Tomahawk missiles (CNN, Reuters). Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov rebuked Arab countries that urged him to press Iran to stop the escalation and berated them for not condemning the assassination of the top leadership and the bombing of a girls’ school in Iran.
Blindsided by the attacks while he was mediating between the United States and Iran, Oman’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, revealed that Tehran had agreed to forgo its nuclear weapons programme as desired by US President Donald Trump. He denounced the US-Israeli action as unethical and illegal. Analysts believe that Trump was coaxed to act before Oman achieved a decisive breakthrough in the negotiations.
Iran’s response was spectacular: it shredded the hitherto-invincible Iron Dome, and hit the US radars and bases in the Gulf: Al Udeid (Qatar); Camp Arifjan, Camp Buehring, Port Shuaiba and Ali Al Salem, 3xF-15E Strike Eagles (Kuwait); Al Dhafra, Al Minhad, AN/TPY-2 THAAD Radar (UAE); Fifth Fleet headquarters (Bahrain), Prince Sultan Air Base (Saudi Arabia), Erbil Air Base (Iraq), AN/TPY-2 THAAD Radar (Jordan), Jebel Ali Port (Dubai); and assets in Oman, Syria, Cyprus. The USS Abraham Lincoln has been hit; US military air jets have been hacked and brought down.
At the time of writing (March 10), Abu Dhabi’s Ruwais Industrial Complex shut down after a drone attack. Iran also blocked Israel’s access to the Dimona nuclear facility. Iran reportedly receives real-time satellite data from Beijing and Moscow. Russian intelligence agencies confirmed that Dubai Airport was being used as a logistics hub by US forces, and that Emirates Airlines was ferrying US troops.
Iran lost its Navy and Air Force. It used up its stock of older missiles and is now deploying Heidar-110 suicide drones, Khoramshahr-4, Fattah, and upgraded Khaybar missiles. The Khaybar can alter radar path mid-atmosphere and strike unexpected locations.
Iranian drones hit the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (March 2, 2026). In a major triumph, Iranian BAVER-373 Indigenous mobile systems (comparable to Russia’s S-400) shot down an American F-35 5th Gen Stealth aircraft over Tehran (March 4, 2026). The US has asked its citizens to leave Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. They may not return anytime soon.
The Iranian counter-attacks stunned Israel. After the US assassination of Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani (Jan 3, 2020), Israel liquidated Ismail Haniyeh (Hamas, July 2024), Yahya Sinwar (Hamas, October 2024), and Hassan Nasrallah (Hezbollah, Sept 2024) with impunity. It eliminated Quds Force Lebanon Corps Commander Daoud Ali Zadeh (March 3, 2026); IRGC Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami (June 13, 2025); Quds Force Intelligence Head in Syria Sadegh Omidzadeh (Jan 20, 2024); Senior Adviser to the Supreme Leader Ali Shamkhani (Israeli strike, Feb–Mar 2026); among others. A nation that had taken such a beating was not expected to retaliate so fiercely.
Hezbollah struck the Haifa naval base, Ramat David airbase, and Tel Hashomer base (Mar 6, 2026). The Israeli media warned that Israel cannot fight both Iran and Lebanon at the same time.
Iran claims that a US air operation in Tehran failed, and states 173 American soldiers and officers from the elite “Delta Force” have been captured. General Dan Cain, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned that America does “not have enough ammunition to win this war on Iran”. Israeli journalist Alon Mizrahi observed that in just four days, Iran destroyed the trillion-dollar military bases and equipment in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Mizrahi said that when the war ends, “the US will never return to West Asia. There will be no American presence in the Middle East”.
The military situation is so serious that Israel is censoring all information about the war. Citizen videos show Iranian missiles hitting Tel Aviv: Israel’s largest power station, Orot Rabin in Haders, has been struck and Tel Aviv has experienced total blackouts. Netanyahu’s own house was burning three days.
Netanyahu
There has been much speculation about the whereabouts of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu after he vanished from public life. SomeHebrew sources claimed that he had perished in a drone attack together with his brother. Though there was no official confirmation, observers noted the sudden cancellation of a planned visit to Israel by Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Rumoured recent high-level casualties in the Israeli government may include National Security Minister Ben Gvir, and Mossad Chief David Barnea.
Gulf reaction
Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Bahrain expressed anger that the US concentrated on protecting Israel and did not defend them from attacks, though they pay oil and pay billions for protection. Riyadh denied the Washington Post story that the Saudi Crown Prince had urged Trump to launch a war on Iran. Ebrahim Azizi, Chairman of Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, urged Arab nations to expel the US military bases as they are the greatest source of instability in the region.
The Arab nations were outraged at alleged “false flag” operations aimed at dragging them into war with Iran. These included drone attacks on Saudi Aramco and some facilities in Oman (Tasnim News Agency). Sky News said the “Shahed-like drone” which hit an RAF base in Cyprus was not launched from Iran. Riyad assured Iran that its territory would not be used for attacks on that country, and told Al Arabiya that it had arrested Mossad agents who were planning false flag bombings in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Iran also denied attacking Türkiye.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are rethinking their agreementss with the US. The Financial Times reported that they plan to cancel future investment commitments in the US to alleviate the economic strain imposed by the Iran war. They might withdraw money from Trump’s cryptocoin fund if he doesn’t stop the war before Iran bombs their desalination plants. Arab investors pulled out of Blackrock (that runs the World Economic Forum), triggering a liquidity crisis and forcing Blackrock to impose a cap for withdrawals. Analysts say this may be a prelude to a plain aimed at preventing the Arabs from reclaiming their funds.
On March 7, 2026, Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian apologised for attacking neighbours and promised to halt the assaults. However, an American missile fired from Bahrain hit a freshwater desalination plant on Iran’s Qeshm Island. Iran in turn hit the water desalination plant in Bahrain. Hezbollah hit Israel’s Haifa refinery, and the Israeli Air Force in turn hit the Tehran oil refinery.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said that President Pezeshkian’s openness to Washington’s quest for de-escalation was “almost immediately killed by President Trump’s misinterpretation of our capabilities.” Iran gets only 3 per cent of its water from desalination while Israel and the Gulf States get 70-90% water through that process. Israel’s five desalination plants that supply 80% of its fresh water are now legitimate targets.
On March 8, Iran launched drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The war now seems to be totally controlled by military commanders.
Lanka frigate
Iranian frigate IRIS Dena was sunk by a torpedo from a submarine, USS Charlotte, a few miles off the Sri Lankan coast, off Galle, on March 4, 2026. Responding to the distress signal, the Sri Lanka navy rescued 30 of nearly 180 sailors on board. The rest perished.
The Iranian foreign minister pointed out the Iris Dena had come to participate in a naval parade at India’s invitation, and wasunarmed as the weapon systems were kept in a secured and non-operational mode, as per the norms of such events. “We believed we were in friendly waters, most of the men on the ship were non-combat/ ceremonial staff”. Strategic expert Dr Brahma Chellaney observed that America violated the Geneva Conventions which demand that attackers search for and rescue survivors when a warship is sinking.
Data Centres
Iran attacked Amazon data centres (March 1, 2026) in Dubai, Bahrain and the UAE. Amazon announced that service restoration would take long and urged customers to back up their data. This is a blow to the world economy. The major tech companies (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle) invested billions to build AI data centres in the Gulf countries. Attacks can cripple Cloud services across half the planet, shut down Bank transaction systems, Hospitals, stock markets, as well as Crypto exchanges, the list of possible consequences is endless.
Google is reportedly trying to evacuate 1,000 employees from Dubai, according to the Wall Street Journal. The offices and warehouses of the US company, Halliburton, in Basra, Iraq, have been completely destroyed.
Shifting Goalposts
Washington has been shifting the goalposts on the Iran war: from destroying Iran’s nuclear program (Trump, Rubio and Vance); to regime change (Trump); to degrading its missile capacity (Hegseth and Rubio); to degrading its ability to attack its neighbours (Dan Caine); and preventing an imminent threat against US troops in the Middle East after the US-Israeli attack began (Rubio).
Strategic experts offer another reason for the aggression: Iran dropped the dollar. By 2024-2025, Iran’s Shetab network was integrated with Russia’s Mir card system, making Visa, Mastercard irrelevant. The Iranian SEPAM interbank system is linked to Russia’s SPFS that allows banks to send payment instructions, settle trade and extend credit lines in rials and rubles without needing SWIFT. Moreover, after joining BRICS, Iran entered a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union. Many members use China’s CIPS and the RMB to clear oil and goods trade among themselves.
US quest for allies
The US quest for allies faltered. Some European allies made polite noises but are hesitant to engage actively. Spain denounced the illegitimacy of the war and Italy declined sending troops. The Iranian Baloch and Kurds refused to fight against Iran. Türkeyi’s President Erdogan stated that the Turks have lived in peace with their Iranian brothers since 1639. Yemen’s Houthis warned Arab countries that if they attacked Iran, they would join the war on behalf of Iran and target all the vital energy infrastructure of the Gulf states in the Red Sea.
Non-Arab Azerbaijan was a possible US ally but on March 9, 2026, it offered humanitarian aid to Iran. Qatari scholar Ali Al-Hail urged the Arab nations to fight against attempts to topple or weaken the Iranian regime as it is the bulwark against Netanyahu’s dream of a “Greater Israel” that seeks to impose Israel’s sovereignty ‘from the Nile to the Euphrates’, or at least on all of historic ‘Mandatory’ Palestine.
In Pakistan, citizens protesting the assassination of Ayatullah Khamenei set fire to the US consulates in Karachi and Lahore. However, General Asim Munir is under US pressure as Iran has attacked US facilities in Saudi Arabia, linked to Pakistan by a defence pact. Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, asserted, “Israel has long been responsible for killings and destruction in the region, the world witnessed those practices in Gaza”.
The Iraqi army foiled an American attempt to set up a base near the citie of Anbar and Najaf (March 5, 2026). In Lebanon, the Hezbollah forces shot down an Apache helicopter in Bekaa, east of Beirut;, hit an Israeli Merkava in northern Occupied Palestine with an ATGM, launched rockets at Israel’s aerospace companies in Tel Aviv, and hit an Israeli military site on Talat al-Hamames, south of the Lebanese town of Khiam (March 6-7, 2026). Israel struck a UN peacekeeping base in Lebanon.
Oil and Gas
On March 5, 2026 UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia halted petroleum production. This covers 30% of the world’s total oil and 17% of natural gas production. Once pipelines are closed, it could take four weeks to resume production. Qatar’s Qatalum that supplies 9% of global aluminium began a controlled shutdown of production due to the gas extraction shutdown. The smelter would take six to twelve months to fully restart. Kuwait and Iraq have also stopped production.
After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz put world oil supplies in jeopardy, President Trump claimed that the US Navy would assist oil tankers to cross the strait but backed down later under pressure from the military leadership. The US Energy Minister Chris Wright admitted on Fox News that oil tankers are refusing the offer. In London, Lloyd’s is cancelling the insurance for oil tankers in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
The Houthis of Yemen control the Bab el Mandeb strait, a choke point that could cripple the world economy. They are monitoring the US aircraft carriers in the Red Sea.
Maersk, one of the world’s largest container shipping companies, announced suspension of cargo bookings in and out of UAE, Oman (all ports apart from Salalah), Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia (Dammam and Jubail) indefinitely.
Climax
As Washington sought a ceasefire, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi responded: “They’re calling for a ceasefire again. That will not happen. The war must end permanently – until then, we will continue fighting for our people’s security”. Trump responded by deploying the US Navy E-6B Mercury aircraft (an airborne command post for nuclear strike). Iran is unfazed as it has Russia and China in its corner.
The world economy is tanking as stock markets crash. As oil prices rise, things will get worse. Indeed, this why Trump wants to take America out of the war. He was furious at the Israeli strikes on 30 Iranian oil depots (March 7, 2026, Axios) as it will impact domestic gas prices in an election year.
In Shia-majority Bahrain, citizens unrest has reportedly led the pro-US Sunni King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa to flee while many US military bases there were being destroyed.
As the shock waves from the Gulf imbroglio spread, a ceasefire is an urgent imperative to save the world from a financial tsunami of epic proportions. China’s special envoy to the region, Zhai Jun, so far met with Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and GCC Secretary General Jassim M. Al-Budaiwi in Riyadh to discuss a ceasefire. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is speaking with counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, France, Israel, Oman and the UAE, to seek an agreement for ending this catastrophic war.
End
References
- U.S. troops killed amid Iranian counterattack, fueling air defense fears, The Washington Post, March 2, 2026
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/01/us-troops-killed-iran
- Analysis suggests US was responsible for deadly strike on Iranian elementary school, CNN, March 7, 2026.
- Peace ‘within reach’ as Iran agrees no nuclear material stockpile: Oman FM, Al Jazeera and AFP, February 28, 2026.
- Iran blames Israel for Saudi Aramco drone attack, calls it ‘false flag’, Middle East Monitor, March 3, 2026.
Iranian strikes on Amazon data centres highlights industry’s vulnerability to physical disasters, AP, Mar 04, 2026.
- Iran Strikes U.S. Military Communication Infrastructure in Mideast, New York Times, March 3, 2026.
- Iran updates: Bombing rages as US Senate fails to curb Trump war powers, Al Jazeera, Mar 4, 2026.
- Between bombs and blackouts, Iranians are trapped in a deepening crisis, CNN, March 6, 2026.
- The First 36 Hours of War Consumed Over 3,000 U.S.-Israeli Munitions, Foreign Policy, March 5, 2026.
- Day 4: the US lost the war and West Asia forever, Alon Mizrahi, Mar 04, 2026.
https://alonmizrahi.substack.com/p/day-4-the-us-lost-the-war-and-west
- Iran war: Drone, missile attacks hit Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, DW, March 8, 2026.
https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-drone-missile-attacks-hit-kuwait-saudi-arabia/live-76263936
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