Abstract
The world is undergoing an transition. We are witnessing a rapid deterioration of the global structure. The emergence new technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), Robotics, nanotechnology, Internet of Things (IoT), semiconductor, quantum technology, recombinant technology, nanobiology, coupled with new trends in global finance like digital currency, digital payments and FinTech, are redrawing the global economic and financial landscape. Besides the changes in the techno-financial domain, mankind is witnessing the democratisation of military and political power through the weaponisation of off-the-shelf remotely piloted aerial (RPA) systems – better known as drones; and rocket artillery. All of these forces are challenging the moral authority and enforcement power of governments. The author argues that a new social contract must be drafted for the coming generations.
Introduction
Kenneth Organski, in his classic work of political science, ‘World Politics’ proposed a ‘Power Transition Theory’ which laid down the framework of power dynamics among great and emerging powers. He concluded that peace can be maintained only when there is a dominant power; when an emerging power achieves near parity with the dominant power, the possibility of war increases. His theory predicts that distribution of power among states will also lead to conflict and instability. The main argument of Organski is that, for peace and stability, hierarchy among states is essential. (1)
This theory articulates the circumstances that led to World War I, wherein rising Germany threatened the global dominance of Britain. Germany under Hitler challenged the USSR and Britain, leading to World War II. After that global conflict, the USSR and USA were the only two near equal powers.
Even though the US and USSR were at near parity, at least in military terms, yet the Cold War never went ‘Hot’, primarily due to the ‘Mutually Assured Destruction’ capability provided by nuclear weapons but it did fuel various conflicts across the globe.
The rise of China as the world’s largest economy in 2014 was a watershed. (2) The dominance of China in contract manufacturing, the global consumer electronics market, (3) along with its emergence as the fourth largest arms exporter with 5.9 per cent of global defence export market (4) made the country a near rival to the US. As per Organski’s theory, the two nations must be at loggerheads. The United States and China are aware of the challenges and have been preparing for the conflict but have also followed a restrained approach. On the other hand, Iran’s approach towards Israel illustrates the Power Transition Theory. In the last few years, access to drone and rocket technologies have provided Iran and its proxies (Hizbollah and Houthis) with the ability to effectively and lethally target and wear down Israel. This led to the endemic Israel-Iran conflict between 2024-26.
At present, the world is witnessing conflict between NATO and Russia via Ukraine and Iran-US via Israel. The two super powers, China and USA, are still managing to maintain a dialogue, howbeit acrimonious. Why are they not behaving according to the Power Transition Theory? The answer lies in the changing power dynamics of the world. For the first time in history, it is not possible for a state to plan the social, political, economic outcome of a conflict. The goals of society, individual and state are not the same. The State no longer possesses absolute power. The atomisation of society has empowered many individuals to act outside the institutions of society and are forcing state to relinquish some control. Bureaucratic centralised planning is being challenged and rejected by people and private institutions.
As the institutions of state and society are losing authority, there is a concentration of power in the hands of Hi-Tech and social media companies. A study of the impact of ‘X’ (formerly known as Twitter) on the US presidential election suggests that “in 2016 and 2020, Twitter became a vehicle for spreading opinions, particularly those of Democrat-leaning users, on Trump. This may, in turn, have persuaded voters with weaker a priories—independents and perhaps more moderate Republicans—to vote against Trump in the presidential election.”(5)
Across the world, the traditional media is losing ground to social media influencers in the endorsement market (6) which is their major source of income. The social media is also changing human behaviour. There is significant rise in social media addiction which is adversely impacting social behaviour, academic performance and mental health especially among teens. (7) Adults are not unaffected either by the adverse impact of social media. There is significant rise in online infidelity, even in conservative India, which is damaging the basic cell of society, the family. (8)
The excessive use of social media among the adolescent and young adults is impacting their cognitive functions. There is substantial reduction in cognitive and neurological function with waxing depression, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and other psychological disorders and a generallywaning attention span. (9)
Social media is undermining the ability of government, academia, and evenvbusiness to influence the masses. The power of institutions to manage public perception is decreasing, and in response governments across the world and even owner of Internet platforms are trying to censor the flow of information through social media.
The financial power of global technology corporations is dwarfing the GDP of medium income countries. The market capitalization of Apple Inc on December 31, 2024 was USD 3.8 trillion which is equal to the nominal GDP of the United Kingdom, the world’s 6th largest economy. This gives a clear picture of how technology companies have collected wealth. This financial power is reflected in the impunity with which technology companies are launching natural language processing engines that are fast replacing search engines, educational materials and are threatening knowledge-based jobs.(10) This new development will have long-term political and social implications worldwde. To mitigate the negative consequences would require reworking of the legal and social framework in which business functions.
Technology corporations are displaying autonomy for developing technologies and products based on the analysis of human psychology and neurology. They have the wherewithal to finance research in human behaviour and develop products that exploit subconscious impulses and reactions to sell products and services. This is referred as neuromarketing. (11) Human behaviour is under the influence of global corporations. Government and society are not in sync with the ever-changing contours of technology, business and the digital world.
A Horizontal Split
Humanity is experiencing a horizontal split between the physical and digital worlds. The physical sphere – business, agriculture, crime, law, defence, security, society, manufacturing etc. is still largely under the control of the governments, whereas the digital world – social media, messaging services, communication technology, email services, search engines, algorithm-based entertainment trends, AI chatbots etc. are owned by technology corporations. These new trends impact the global population at once. They are user-driven; hence the consumer is also a creator of trends. This is creating a new universal techno-culture.
This universal culture is challenging the moral and philosophical structure of society, the established norms of governance and state, and the character of all regional and national cultures.
A government manages public affairs within the defined boundaries of a state. It has few, if any ways and means to regulate the global trends in entertainment and social media that adversely impact the behaviour of individual and resist the emerging universal social norms. This is a new form of globalisation where the state has no authority to negotiate and enforce.
The digital sphere under the control of a few global technology conglomerates makes the world vulnerable to global disruptions. In 2024, a software failure in Microsoft grounded aviation, healthcare and banking in many countris. This exposed the vulnerability of universal reliance on a single service provider. The inability of governments to provide immediate relief was highlighted by the crisis. (12) The horizontal split is a truth which needs to be acknowledged by government and society.
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