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Romania’s independent nationalist and pro-Russia candidate, Călin Georgescu, stunned Europe by winning the first round of the presidential elections on November 24, 2024, mainly on the strength of anti-establishment and diaspora votes. Local surveys had predicted that he would win 5 percent of the vote, but he reeled in 22.95 percent as counting ended.
Călin Georgescu spent very little on his campaign and relied on his popular TikTok videos (he has 298,000 followers and attracts millions of likes). A specialist in agricultural affairs and food policy, he urged the country to be more self-sufficient in farm and energy output. He holds a doctorate in Soil Science and has worked for Romania’s Ministry of Environment. He focused on Romania’s soaring cost of living, high poverty, the highest inflation rate in the European Union, and largest budget deficit. He called for an end to aid for Ukraine.
A university professor, Georgescu has worked with the United Nations as a special rapporteur in the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights between 2010 and 2012, and as the executive director of the Global Sustainable Index Institute between 2015 and 2016.
Speaking after his victory, he said, “Tonight, the Romanian people cried out for peace. And they shouted very loudly, extremely loudly.” On Facebook, he said the results represent “an extraordinary awakening” of the people. Georgescu campaigned under the slogan “Restore the dignity of the Romanian nation;” his victory was welcomed by Russian media.
In an interview in 2021, Georgescu condemned the NATO ballistic missile defense shield based at the Deveselu military base in southern Romania as “a disgrace”. He said NATO would not protect any of its members if Russia were to attack them. Romania has been a NATO member since 2004.
The second round against Elena Lasconi is slated for December 8, 2024. Lasconi (Save Romania Union party, USR) won 19.17 percent of the vote, narrowly beating Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu (Social Democratic Party, PSD) who secured 19.15 percent. A former journalist, Lasconi supports Romania’s presence in NATO and the European Union. She advocates increased defense spending and continued aid to Ukraine, which may not go down well with the electorate.
Romania has a 650-km border with Ukraine, so Georgescu’s potential victory will be closely monitored. From the beginning of the war, Romania helped Ukraine export grain via the Port of Constanţa and import military supplies. Romania secures the gates of NATO on the Black Sea, shared with Crimea, Turkey, and Russia. The war raised the strategic importance of the Mihail Kogălniceanu air base on the Black Sea, which is/was mooted to become NATO’s largest.
Reports suggest that Robert F. Kennedy, nominated by President-elect Donald Trump to serve as US Secretary of Health and Human Services, will go to Romania (Dec. 5) to help Georgescu clinch the second round. Trump’s endorsement of Georgescu is consistent with the former’s commitment to end the Ukraine war.
George Simion’s far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians Party (AUR) won 13.86 percent of the vote. The AUR expelled Georgescu in 2022 for being too radical and publicly praising Ion Antonescu (a World War II prime minister who was executed for his part in Romania’s Holocaust) and Corneliu Codreanu (leader of the 1930s Iron Guard). Georgescu said the duo “are heroes through whom national history lived, … not through the lackeys of the globalist powers that lead Romania today temporarily.” However, after Georgescu’s stunning victory, Simion said AUR would fully support him in the runoff. Diana Șoșoacă’s nationalist SOS Romania party has also announced its support for Georgescu.
Once a globalist, Georgescu turned more nationalistic around 2016, became critical of NATO and the EU, and opposed the construction of a NATO missile base at Deveselu. He denies being pro-Russia but wants to keep Romania out of the Ukraine conflict. An adherent of the Romanian Orthodox Church, he upholds its importance in the nation.
Should he win, Georgescu is likely to focus on domestic issues as his voters opposed Ukrainian grain flooding the domestic market at the expense of local farmers and were against the government financially supporting Ukrainian refugees.
Amidst growing fears of World War III, Romanians fear involvement because of the NATO base and US missile infrastructure, Romania’s logistical role in arming Ukraine, and the newly built “Moldova Highway” that could facilitate deployment of NATO troops in the event of a conventional conflict.
Appreciating Russian President Vladimir Putin as one of the few true leaders in the world, Georgescu said Romania could do with some Russian wisdom and called President Volodymyr Zelensky bad for Ukraine. He said that the 1989 revolution, which ended Communist rule in Romania, was a coup d’état used by the West to steal Romania’s resources, and added that the West now enslaves the country.
Some analysts believe that the verdict does not reflect real mass support for Georgescu. Claudiu Pandaru, co-founder of the Romanian news website Republica, says he got “protest votes against [the] current political class” (accused of corruption) and the majority of his voters are unaware of his “pro-Russia” comments.
Philipp Lausberg, senior policy analyst at the Belgium-based European Policy Centre, agrees that people “are tired of the existing party system.” Lausberg said Georgescu won the diaspora vote, mostly from “labour migrants in Western Europe” as he “gave them the idea that he would offer them a Romania that is worth returning home to”. While, according to the Romanian Institute of Statistics, inflation has fallen from 13.8 percent in 2022 to around 5 percent in 2024, it remains among the highest in the European Union.
Romania’s parliamentary elections fall on December 1, the country’s National Day. The pollster Inscop predicts that (as of October) the PSD is leading the parliamentary polls with 30.2 percent, followed by the PNL with 13.2 percent and Lasconi’s USR with 12.7 percent of the votes.
What is undeniable is that a far-right surge is happening in Europe. Austria’s Freedom Party (FPO) won the parliamentary election in September 2024. Also in September, Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the state election in Thuringia, the first time a far-right party won a state election in Germany since World War II.
Dorit Geva, a professor at the University of Vienna, said right-wing wins in Europe could “further legitimise Viktor Orban’s vision for the future of Europe, which means limiting the power of Brussels, securitising European borders against migration, and is certainly bad news for Ukraine.”
Romania’s election comes close on the heels of the Georgian Dream party’s victory in the parliamentary elections on October 26, 2024, with 54.24 percent of the vote under Prime Minister Irakli. Georgia is the second country in the former Soviet sphere of influence to have returned to a pro-Russia political orientation. As in Georgia, NGOs in the LGBTQ+ sector decried the national trend towards traditional Christian morality.
References:
1] What could happen to Ukraine if Călin Georgescu becomes president?, Euronews, Nov. 26, 2024.
2] Who is Călin Georgescu, the far-right TikTok star leading the Romanian election race?, Politico, Nov 25, 2024.
3] Who is Calin Georgescu, Romanian right-wing candidate leading the election?, Al Jazeera, Nov. 25, 2024.
4] Shock as pro-Russia independent wins first round of Romanian election, The Guardian, Jon Henley, Nov. 25, 2024.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/25/calin-georgescu-romania-election-hard-right-candidate
5] Far-right candidate takes shock lead in Romania presidential election, BBC, Nov. 25, 2024.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9dlw5pq967o
6] https://x.com/daily_romania/status/1861064751163326631?t=lRSw_f4Livkq59V2sjBnHA&s=03
7] Surprise Outcome for Romanian Nationalists, Arktos Journal, Kenneth Schmidt, Nov. 26, 2024.
8] The Outcome Of Romania’s Presidential Election Could Spoil The US’ Potential Escalation Plans, Andrew Korybko, Nov 24, 2024.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-outcome-of-romanias-presidential
9] Can Maidan 2.0 derail Georgia elections?, Sandhya Jain, Chintan India Foundation blog, Nov. 4, 2024.
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