Do not underestimate President Trump’s vision

President Trump is pursuing his ideas of changing the old order, which, he says, is no longer helpful for restoring the United States of America’s greatness.

Among a slew of innovative decisions, one causing much unease to its allies and friends is about tariffs. Trump wants to revise the tariffs upwards, arguing that in many countries, American goods are charged high tariffs compared to those that the US imposes on impartd.

European countries are the largest trade partners of the US. Trump’s new tariff formula does not promise any concession to them. As such the EU member countries apprehend major trade disruption once the revised tariffs become operative.

India is also feeling the brunt of tariff threats because it will have a direct impact on her economic activity which promises a 6.5 % GDP growth rate for the current year.  Prime Minister Modi assures his countrymen that his government is aiming at upgrading India’s economy from the fifth to the third biggest economy in the world.  

In pursuit of this objective, India has been holding trade talks with the UK for a long time.  Some hurdles in streamlining the trade relations have been overcome and some remain to be sorted out.

The British business and trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds was in New Delhi last week to resume Indo-British trade talks. He is reported to have discussed the entire gamut of bilateral trade relations. Both countries would like to see the quantum of trade between them doubl in a decade. Reynolds said securing a trade deal was a top priority for his government.

In another development, the EU has begun to feel that it must expand and diversify its trade activities to reduce itd dependence on the US. India with a large market and swelling middle class becomes its first choice.

Recently, European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen was in New Delhi with most EU commissioners for the resumption of trade negotiations. It reflects an urgency to conclude a pact as the tariff threat looms large. Following talks with the Indian Prime Minister, she called India a “like-minded friend” adding that we have tasked our teams to build on this momentum to finalise a free trade pact.

The two sides have also discussed elevating their defence and security partnership. Modi went on to say that they had prepared a “blueprint for collaboration” in areas such as trade, technology, investment, and security. The remark of the European Commission President that “EU and India have the potential to be one of the defining partnerships of this century and it is time to take their strategic partnership to the next level,” shows that the EU takes India seriously.

 These may appear only indicators but undoubtedly, they predict bigger things to happen in global strategy. What is at the root of Trump’s penchant for a change and what are the contours of that change? We need to clear the cobwebs of confusion.

The Cold War era ended with the implosion of the erstwhile Soviet Union. But did the Cold War era end with that? Russia has shed the extra baggage and has attained greater strategic manoeuvrability. A workable relationship between Russia and China on the one hand, and Putin’s ability to befriend Iran as well as North Korea — the two inveterate adversaries of the US – on the other, reduces the strategic outreach of NATO. India, an important player on the global chessboard, remains steadfast about its age-old friendly bonds with Russia and is rewarded with a thaw in the Sino-Indian gridlock over the border issue.

President Trump has put his finger where the malaise lies. He feels that his idea of “America First” should essentially mean that the country will take the lead to change the world order in a way that makes the United States a beacon of peace. It means changing the widespread perception that the US is run by a clique of war-mongers bent on policing the globe and exporting disorder and destabilisation at their free will.

Consequently, his first target is the “deep state” of the US, which he holds responsible for winning the US more adversaries than friends. This point was ably elucidated by Kash Patel during his Senate certification. With facts and figures on the tip of his tongue, he disarmed those who intended to uphold the status quo in US intelligence agencies.

How Trump wants the Ukrainian war to be stopped reflects his disapproval of giving a free rein to NATO. In light of the new international realities, NATO is  out of tune and even hamrful. When President Trump told Zelensky that he was losing the war, he put paid to Zelensky’s demand that Ukraine be taken into NATO.  By admonishing Zelensky, Trump meant the message to go across the Atlantic and precisely to the European Union. Here we may recall the historic remark of Indian External Affairs Minister, Dr S Jaishankar, in response to a question from a newsman. He had said “Europe must change its mindset. Europe thinks that its problems are the problems of the world but the world’s problems are not its problems.”

 The “Deep State” has predictably reacted negatively to President Trump’s plans for reform. In self-defence, he has to selectively expose the corruption and waste resulting from the political ideology of the Democrats and spill the beans. The revelations about USAID’s operations are an eye-opener about how the Democrats recklessly squandered the tax payer’s money to support and perpetuate their hegemony under the mask of liberalism and other clichés.

Lastly, Trump is perhaps the first American President who understands that negotiating a just  peace with Russia could usher in long-term stability and prosperity in Europe, in a world  tired of acrimony, uncertainty, and insecurity. He has put the ball in Russia’s court and is waiting for a response to his initiative though he is probably aware that many problems remain to be solved and grievances to be addressed on all sides.