Sub-continent on the verge of a sweeping change

Pakistan is struggling hard to wriggle out of the chronic financial crisis. Domestic strife and religious legionnaire add to her woes. 

The Imran Khan-led Tahreek-i-Insaf party and Baluchistan Liberation Army, though not in tandem, both threaten her stability. The threat of dismissing the provincial government and imposing the President’s rule in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa after the violence of 24^th November does not bode well for the nation.

Islamabad has opened another front in the parts of Jammu and Kashmir State under its control. The Neelam Valley and G-B have passed through an intense spate of civil disobedience for several months. The masses of people are on the streets openly demanding separation from Pakistan and accession to India, which they maintain is their original country. The intensity of this mass agitation circumscribes Pakistan’s civilian and military authorities from resorting to brute force to quell the uprising.

Domestic disquiet has impacted Pakistan’s credibility with big powers and even has blurred her foreign policy. China has lately realised that Pakistan’s assurance of providing physical security to its workforce at China-funded projects is illusory and should not be depended upon. China has suffered casualties at the hands of anti-regime activists in parts of Pakistan, especially Baluchistan. Beijing shows reduced interest in completing in-hand projects in Pakistan. 

The recurring loss of life suffered by the Chinese workforce in Pakistan has made Beijing sceptical about Pakistan’s ability to be a dependable business partner. With an economy marked by limitations, China is hardly in a position to bail out Pakistan from the financial crisis. Despite knowing that Pakistan’s economy is in quandary China is pressing hard on Islamabad to repay the huge debts it owes her.  

In a recent readout Russia cautioned Pakistan that if it fails to return the amounts it owes to Moscow, Russia will be left with the choice of imposing a ban on the export of Russian goods to Pakistan.

Pakistan has stepped up infiltration of jihadists into the Indian part of Kashmir. About 600 of them, well-trained and fully armed, are said to be waiting along the LoC to infiltrate into the Indian side of the line, especially along the International Border in the Samba – Kathua sector…

The Islamist and pro-Pakistan elements are reacting to a grouse which they have against Russia, China and India. They have a grouse of their own but no common thread running among them. 

Some months back, Indian External Affairs Minister Dr Jaishankar said that India would ask for modification of the Indus Water Treaty because its conditions and clauses are unfair and unjust to India. The treaty does provide for the revision of its clauses. Dr Jaishankar went on to say that 80 per cent water of the rivers originating in India goes to Pakistan according to the treaty.

Presumably, India has sounded some important world leaders about her compulsion to revisit the treaty and even convinced them that the existing treaty is unfair and unjust.

A Russian source reported Putin saying that the Indus Water Treaty could enjoy the status quo on two conditions. One is that Pakistan should return to India the entire area of the original state of J&K under its illegal occupation since 1947. The second condition is that Pakistan should withdraw once for its entire jihadist and other terrorist forces from operating in the Indian part of Kashmir and should also apologize to India for sponsoring jihadist incursion into Kashmir.

Putin would not clarify Russia’s stand on Kashmir and link it to the IWT unless Pakistan had broached the matter. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif is reported to have said that Pakistan would renounce its claim over any part of Kashmir provided India agrees to maintain the status quo of the Indus Water Treaty. 

Interestingly, Chinese President Xi restated his known stand that Kashmir is a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan. But he added that India’s sovereignty over the area could not be disputed. 

America has been traditionally providing oxygen to the Pak economy from time to time. Washington has been doing this to counterbalance India so that the balance of power in the sub-continent is not disrupted. But as the US is beset with economic, political and ideological controversies, the latter caused by the landslide victory of Donald Trump and the reverses of the centralists’ political game plan, Pakistan is shrivelled by Trump’s statements that it is loath to take down the throat.

In such a precarious situation, Islamabad is trying to find assistance from Iran. Only recently, Iranian foreign minister Abbes Araghchi was on an undeclared short visit to Pakistan. The bizarre story making rounds in speculative circles is that Iran is seeking end-up technology from Pakistan for its nuclear weapon in return for a hefty amount. 

Rumours like the one stated above were making rounds earlier also. But if there is any truth in it, then it should be considered the last and final attempt of Pakistan to take the subcontinent to the verge of annihilation.